Beware the Last Day of the Month

Today is the last day of the month for June. It has been a wild month, as Brexit talk dominated the first three weeks of the month, then the wild volatility after the surprise vote to leave caught many off guard over the past week.

Something that has our attention is how weak the last day of the month has been lately. Incredibly, this day has been higher only three times going back 19 months.

06-30-16_Blog_Figure1

Drilling down further, last year saw the last day of the month higher only twice. That was the lowest number since the early 1930s. This year only the last day of January has been higher so far.

06-30-16_Blog_Figure2

Breaking things down by the month, since 1980, the last day of June is up only 41.7% of the time—the lowest out of all 12 months.

06-30-16_Blog_Figure3

What could this late month weakness mean? If you think back over the past 19 months, the S&P 500 has been in a range and simply can’t break out. This coincides with the historical late month weakness as well. One under the radar clue that things may be turning around could be strength on the last day of the month. It hasn’t happened yet, but maybe June can kick off a new trend.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

 Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor

Member FINRA/SIPC

Tracking #1-512403 (Exp. 06/17)