- Stocks pause; oil and JOLTS in focus. Major indexes finished flat yesterday as concern in the oil patch caused early gains to reverse after the Nasdaq reached a new all-time high; equities remain little changed this morning as investors wait for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report as earnings season winds down. Overseas, there was little movement in Asia with the Nikkei Index losing 0.2%, as a rebound in Japanese manufacturing was overshadowed by disappointing U.S. productivity data; China’s Shanghai Composite also fell modestly. European stocks are moving in tandem with global markets in afternoon trading, a day after Germany’s DAX hit a 2016 high. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil is at $43/barrel and risk-off trades are up as the 10-year Treasury yield slumps to 1.53% and COMEX gold advances to $1360/oz.
- OPEC releases monthly production data. OPEC releases production data every month, but this report has taken on more significance recently as the price of oil seems to be at an inflection point, near its 200-day moving average and the $40 per barrel price range. Production increased month over month in July. Iran is now pumping roughly 3.5 million barrels per day, near its 4 million capacity and up significantly from its pre-sanction level of under 2 million. Oil prices were down modestly this morning, after rallying over the past few days on news that OPEC will meet in September to discuss a possible production freeze.
- Another tight range day. The S&P 500 made a new intraday all-time high yesterday for the third straight day, but failed to close at a new high for the second consecutive day. That last happened earlier this month and on May 20, 2015, before that. It was another small trading range day, as the S&P 500 traded in a range of only 0.42%, on the heels of just 0.35% on Monday. We’ve noted before the historically tight range the S&P 500 has been in lately, but think about this: over the past 20 days, 7 of those days saw an intraday range of less than 0.50%. The first 70 days of the year all traded in ranges greater than 0.50%.
- New high for the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq made another new all-time high yesterday, on the heels of a new high on Friday, which was the first new all-time high since July 20, 2015. This came out to 264 trading days since the last new all-time high. Seven other times in history the Nasdaq went 200 days or more without a new all-time high, and the average return three months later was 4.2%. Six months later? 13.0%. Today on the LPL Research blog we will take a closer look at new highs on the Nasdaq.
- JOLTS (Jun)
- Monthly Budget Statement (Jul)
- South Korea: Central Bank Meeting (No Change Expected)
- China: Industrial Production (Jul)
- China: Retail Sales (Jul)
- China: Fixed Asset Investment (Jul)
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The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted.
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Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
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Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better.
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