It Has Been 100 Days Since The S&P 500 Did This

How persistent has the rally been since the U.S. election? We’ve shown this many ways, but here’s yet another great example. Yesterday, the S&P 500 Index closed for the 100th trading day in a row above its 50-day moving average. Using historical data back to 1928*, this is only the 18th time the S&P 500 has ever made it to 100 days and the first time it has happened in more than six years.

Although 100 days is a long time, it still has a long ways to go to reach the record of 257 days set in 1995, as noted in the chart below:

When you see there was a streak of more than 100 days in 2007, ahead of the Financial Crisis, the next question is, do these trends signal a potential warning? As the next chart shows, that fortunately doesn’t appear to be the case. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Looking at the other times the S&P 500 traded above its 50-day moving average for 100 days or more, the subsequent 1-, 3-, and 6-month average returns are better than the average return for all comparable periods. In other words, you might think these long runs should lead to a well-deserved break, but history suggests that isn’t always the case.”

Last, note that the recent 100-day return was only 9.1%, the weakest out of all the previous streaks. In fact, only one other time did a streak return less than 10%, and that was in 1964. Is this a sign of a weakening trend? Or could it be a market that still has plenty left in the tank? Please continue to follow LPL Research as we continually analyze that important question.



* Please note: The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1928 incorporates the performance of its predecessor index, the S&P 90.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

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The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted.
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Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

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