With positive returns of 5.6% year to date in 2017 through April 17, the Bloomberg Barclays Municipal High Yield Index has recovered dramatically from its sell-off in the fourth quarter of 2016 (-6.8%). Benefiting from a compelling yield, as demonstrated by the yield to worst for the index of 6.1%, (9.3% taxable equivalent yield assuming a 35% tax rate), high-yield municipals are outperforming most fixed income sectors year to date (see chart below). Much of the yield advantage is derived from a longer duration profile, which has worked thus far as long maturities are outperforming shorter ones due to the yield curve flattening. In addition to compelling yields, default risk, a key variable in determining price volatility, remains subdued relative to corporate bonds.
The duration of the muni high-yield index is 9.60 years, which makes prices very sensitive to interest rate movements and helps to explain the losses experienced in the fourth quarter of 2016. By comparison, the duration of the Barclays High Yield Corporate Bond Index is 3.97 years. Generally, the longer the duration, the more sensitive the bond’s price is to interest rate changes. Therefore, if interest rates rise by 1%, the price of the municipal index would be expected to decline by approximately 9.6%, all else equal. The longer the duration of the bond, the higher the yield should be as investors need compensation for the additional time it takes to recover their principal investment, should yields rise. Historically, short-term bonds perform better in rising rate environments, since investors can recover their principal sooner and reinvest at higher interest rates.
As mentioned in our Outlook 2017: Gauging Market Milestones, we expect the 10-year Treasury yield to end the year in the 2.25-2.75% range. We also don’t expect deterioration in the U.S. economy, which could pressure lower-rated states and credits leading to default. We remain neutral on high-yield municipal bonds overall; however, the longer duration makes the sector appropriate for longer-term investors that are less sensitive to interest rate risk. We generally recommend a shorter duration profile across various fixed income sectors and asset classes for suitable investors to protect against additional volatility.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security.
The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values and yields will decline as interest rates rise, and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
The Barclays High Yield Bond Index covers the universe of publicly issued debt obligations rated below investment grade. Bonds must be rated below investment grade or high yield (Ba1/BB+ or lower), by at least two of the following ratings agencies: Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch. Bonds must also have at least one year to maturity, have at least $150 million in par value outstanding, and must be U.S. dollar denominated and nonconvertible. Bonds issued by countries designated as emerging markets are excluded.
The Barclays U.S. High Yield Loan Index tracks the market for dollar-denominated floating-rate leveraged loans. Instead of individual securities, the U.S. High-Yield Loan Index is composed of loan tranches that may contain multiple contracts at the borrower level.
The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS, and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
The Barclays U.S. Corporate Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market.
The Barclays U.S. Treasury Index is an unmanaged index of public debt obligations of the U.S. Treasury with a remaining maturity of one year or more. The index does not include T-bills (due to the maturity constraint), zero coupon bonds (strips), or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).
The Barclays U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index tracks agency mortgage backed pass-through securities (both fixed rate and hybrid ARM) guaranteed by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC).
The Barclays U.S. Treasury TIPS Index is a rules-based, market value-weighted index that tracks inflation-protected securities issued by the U.S. Treasury.
The JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index is a benchmark index for measuring the total return performance of international government bonds issued by emerging markets countries that are considered sovereign (issued in something other than local currency) and that meet specific liquidity and structural requirements.
The BofA Merrill Lynch Preferred Stock Hybrid Securities Index is an unmanaged index consisting of a set of investment-grade, exchange-traded preferred stocks with outstanding market values of at least $50 million that are covered by Merrill Lynch Fixed Income Research.
The Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index is a rules-based, market-value-weighted index engineered for the long-term tax-exempt bond market.
The Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Municipal Bond Index measures the performance of the high yield municipal bond market. To be included in the index, bonds must be rated non-investment-grade (Ba1/BB- or lower) by at least two of the following ratings agencies: Moody’s, S&P, Fitch. If only two of the three agencies rate the security, the lower rating is used to determine index eligibility. If only one of the three agencies rates a security, the rating must be non-investment-grade. They must have an outstanding par value of at least $7 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. The bonds must be fixed rate, have a dated-date after December 31, 1990, and must be at least one year from their maturity date. Remarketed issues, taxable municipal bonds, bonds with floating rates, and derivatives, are excluded from the benchmark. On August 24, 2016, Bloomberg acquired the Barclays fixed income benchmark indices from Barclays. Barclays and Bloomberg have agreed to co-brand the indices as the Bloomberg Barclays Indices for an initial term of five years.
The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan index tracks the investable market of the U.S. dollar denominated leveraged loan market. It consists of issues rated “5B” or lower, meaning that the highest rated issues included in this index are Moody’s/S&P ratings of Baa1/BB+ or Ba1/BBB+. All loans are funded term loans with a tenor of at least one year and are made by issuers domiciled in developed countries.
The World Government Bond Index (WGBI) measures the performance of fixed-rate, local currency, investment grade sovereign bonds. The WGBI is a widely used benchmark that currently comprises sovereign debt from over 20 countries, denominated in a variety of currencies, and has more than 25 years of history available. The WGBI provides a broad benchmark for the global sovereign fixed income market. Sub-indices are available in any combination of currency, maturity, or rating.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor Member FINRA/SIPC
Tracking # 1- 6000939 (Exp. 04/18)