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It has been a great start to 2017, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 11% year to date, but be aware that the index has, on average, peaked near here going back the past 20 years before regrouping for a fourth quarter run-up. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “The first half of July has been strong.  Check that off for working in 2017, but be aware that the S&P 500 has tended to peak around now and the next few months can be tricky.”

The first half of the year has been stronger than usual, but given that this is the longest stretch the S&P 500 has gone without a 5% correction in more than 20 years, we would expect some second-half volatility. In other words, the next couple months could look more like the average of the past 20 years, but that potentially sets up a better buying opportunity.

 

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