Equity returns during September have historically been weak, as we noted in Everything You Wanted To Know About September, But Were Afraid To Ask. Since 1950*, no month for the S&P 500 Index sported a worse average return, and over the past 20 years only August had a lower average return. So what about this year? With a strong start to the month that included several record new highs, does this negate the potential for a September pullback?
Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “We all know that September is a tricky month, but what falls through the cracks is that the first half of the month has usually been okay; it is the end of the month that seems to be when the wheels have tended to fall off.”
With the S&P 500 having gone more than a year without a 2% weekly decline and more than 10 months since its last 3% decline (from peak to trough), we would advise increased caution as we head into this tricky seasonal period.
*Please note: The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90.
The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
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