Another Look at Seasonality

As we noted in Is It Time for That September Weakness?, the second half of September can be troublesome from a historical standpoint. Below is a popular chart we’ve shared before that shows how late-September can be weak, but in a different fashion. It illustrates how often each day of the year has been positive for the S&P 500 Index over the past 20 years. As you can see, we are in the heart of one of the least likely times of the year to expect equity strength.

Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Although seasonality is something we watch, in the end, fundamentals, technicals, and valuations matter more. Still, given that the S&P 500 has gone 10 months without so much as a 3% correction, which is the second longest streak ever, it is important to remember to pay attention to the calendar and be ready for any potential volatility.”

 

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The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted.

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