Seasonal Analysis: Let’s Celebrate Equities This St. Patrick’s Day

As it turns out, while many people in the United States like to wear green in March to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day—green can also play into the potential positive returns for the S&P 500 Index, thanks to seasonal patterns, which have the potential to benefit your overall portfolio strategy.

That’s right—March tends to be bullish for equity market seasonal returns. Looking back over the past 20 years, there is a 65% likelihood that stocks will move higher this month.

The table below details our latest analysis, where we identified a variety of sectors that showed a seasonal tendency to outperform the S&P 500 during March—a month when the index has on average been higher by 2.1%. As we review the data, it’s important to note that non-seasonal factors still influence performance and should not be ignored.

A variety of sectors including financials, energy, consumer discretionary, and industrials have on average tended to exhibit the highest relative strength during the month. However, if you are interested in a more targeted strategy, consider that out of the top 15 industry groups, financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials represent seasonally strong breadth for select industry categories this month.

As we begin the month of March and move closer toward celebrating yet another St. Patrick’s Day, we should remember to evaluate of the seasonal statistics that we tend to see—as it could be a good time to think about implementing this type of analysis as part of your portfolio management plan.


Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted.
Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal and potential illiquidity of the investment in a falling market.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Because of their narrow focus, specialty sector investing, such as healthcare, financials, or energy, will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

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