Hard to believe it, but the bull market turns nine years old on March 9, 2018.
This is now the second largest (nearly quadrupled on a total return basis) and second longest (nine years) bull market since World War II (WWII), with only the 1990s bull market standing in its way.
The big question to investors now, with all the recent worry over tariffs, higher rates, and inflation, is if the bull market can make it to 10 years old. “This bull might be old, but remember bull markets don’t die of old age, they die of excesses. The reality is that we simply aren’t seeing the excesses seen at other major tipping points,” explained John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist.
Excesses we monitor are overspending, overborrowing, and overconfidence. We aren’t seeing major warnings signs from these three currently. For example, borrowing (leverage) at current levels is nowhere near what we saw leading up to the Financial Crisis last decade.
For more on our thoughts on the bull market turning 9 years old and why we expect it to make it to 10, be on the lookout for our latest Weekly Market Commentary due out later today.
*Please note: The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90.
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