- Trade concerns rising but still time for negotiation. The war of words between China and the United States escalated overnight when the Trump administration’s earlier announcement of plans to tax approximately $50 billion of Chinese goods in response to intellectual property violations was followed up with China’s announcement of tariffs on $50 billion of U.S. goods. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of the limited trade actions to date and the possibility of further escalation has pushed markets lower, but the proposed policies have not yet been put into place as the United States is giving companies until May 22 to raise objections to the tariffs based on their potential business impact. Similarly, Chinese tariffs will not be put into effect immediately. This leaves a meaningful window open for negotiation, and détente remains a more likely outcome than a trade war. Still, while trade-related market risk has become more elevated and some companies will experience higher input costs and narrowing margins for certain products, tariffs announced to date amount to minimal economic value as a percentage of the overall U.S. economy.
- MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 30)
- ADP Employment Change (Mar)
- Markit Services PMI (Mar)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing (Mar)
- Factory Orders (Feb)
- Durable Goods Orders (Feb)
- Cap Goods Shipments & Orders (Feb)
- Bullard (Dove)
- Mester (Hawk)
- Eurozone: Unemployment Rate (Feb)
- Eurozone: CPI (Mar)
- Challenger Job Cuts (Mar)
- Weekly Jobless Claims (Mar 31)
- Trade Balance (Feb)
- Bostic (Dove)
- Germany: Factory Orders (Feb)
- Italy: Markit ADACI Italy Services PMI (Mar)
- France: Markit France Services PMI (Mar)
- Germany: Markit Germany Services PMI (Mar)
- Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Services PMI (Mar)
- UK: Markit UK Services PMI (Mar)
- Eurozone: PPI (Feb)
- Eurozone: Retail Sales (Feb)
- RBI: Repurchase Rate (Apr 5)
- ECB: Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- Change in Non-farm, Private & Manufacturing Payrolls (Mar)
- Unemployment Rate (Mar)
- Average Hourly Earnings (Mar)
- Average Weekly Hours (Mar)
- Labor Force Participation & Underemployment Rates (Mar)
- Consumer Credit (Feb)
- Germany: Industrial Production (Feb)
- Japan: Leading Index (Feb)
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