It has been an outstanding earnings season by many measures. Second quarter numbers were strong, even without the boost from the new tax law. With just a small handful of companies left to report, S&P 500 Index earnings are up about 25% year over year, or 18-19% without the boost from corporate tax cuts. A record 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeded quarterly earnings targets, according to data from Thomson Reuters, while index earnings have now beaten expectations 37 straight quarters.
“Strong revenue growth and strong operating cash flows, in addition to tax cuts, are driving overall profit growth,” noted LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch.
We were particularly impressed by the increase in 12-month forward earnings estimates, highlighted in our LPL Chart of the Day. Remember, estimates typically fall as companies report.
See our latest Weekly Market Commentary for more takeaways from this earnings season, including what we heard from management teams about trade policy and potential opportunities for higher profit margins.
These results more than support our 2018 earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 Index of $155 per share, which may prove conservative with the impact of tax cuts still cycling through (consensus estimates from various sources are over $160 per share). Even as the S&P 500 sits near the low end of our year-end target range of 2900-3000, we do not believe this is a time for investors to sell stocks.* We think this bull market—now the longest ever—still has legs, though the ongoing trade dispute with China and midterm elections may be sources of near-term volatility.
* Additional descriptions and disclosures are available in our publication Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.
All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. EPS serves as an indicator of a company’s profitability. Earnings per share is generally considered to be the single most important variable in determining a share’s price. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
The investment products sold through LPL Financial are not insured deposits and are not FDIC/NCUA insured. These products are not Bank/Credit Union obligations and are not endorsed, recommended or guaranteed by any Bank/Credit Union or any government agency. The value of the investment may fluctuate, the return on the investment is not guaranteed, and loss of principal is possible.
For Public Use — Tracking # 1-765898 (Exp. 05/19)