- Outstanding earnings season winds down. With 92% of S&P 500 Index companies having reported, third-quarter earnings growth is tracking to an impressive 28.1% year-over-year increase, the highest since Q4 2010 and 6.5 percentage points higher than September 30 expectations. Despite tariffs, S&P 500 earnings estimates for the next 12 months have only been reduced by 1.1% since October 1, less than the average earnings season decline in forward expectations. The overwhelming majority of companies have experienced none or only modest impact on their supply chains and costs from tariffs thus far. Revenue results have also been very good, supported by strong economic growth. S&P 500 revenue has increased 8.5% year over year, 1.1 percentage points above September expectations (though below last quarter’s 9.5% clip).
- One step back at APEC. Global trade discussions took a step back over the weekend, as global leaders attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit failed to agree on a joint statement from the meeting for the first time in 25 years. Reports this morning indicate the discord was around trade, and Vice President Mike Pence and Chinese President Xi Jinping took shots at each other’s policies in speeches at the meeting. Investors might have to wait for the G-20 summit at the end of this month for progress in trade talks, but APEC’s outcome could sour investors’ expectations for a deal in the near term. Still, we expect the U.S. and China to reach an agreement before significant economic damage is inflicted.
- Crude reality of oil’s slide. WTI Crude oil’s slide reached 27% at the recent lows on November 13, before a modest bounce over the past several days. On the LPL Research blog today, we’ll review key factors behind of the sharp decline in oil, highlight several catalysts to potentially turn the commodity around, and share our updated thoughts on the energy sector.
- Takeaways from the Brexit deal. European political tensions are flaring up again-this time over the U.K. government’s proposed deal for an exit from the European Union, or Brexit. On the LPL Research blog today, we’ll share our initial thoughts on the proposed Brexit deal, and the economic implications involved with each outcome.
- LPL Market Signals Podcast. In our latest episode, listen to LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch and Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick discuss potential post-midterm gridlock and why history indicates it might not be bad for investors. Subscribe to the free Market Signals podcast series on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts!
- Housing Starts (MoM, Oct)
- Building Permits (MoM, Oct)
- Germany PPI Report (Oct)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 17)
- Durable Goods Orders (Preliminary, MoM, Oct)
- Leading Index (MoM, Oct)
- Existing Home Sales (MoM, Oct)
- Japan CPI Report (Oct)
- Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary, Nov)
- Markit US Services PMI (Preliminary, Nov)
- Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary, Nov)
- Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary, Nov)
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Index data obtained via FactSet
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