What happened? Investors are still scratching their heads after a tumultuous Q4 that dragged the S&P 500 Index down >13% to finish 2018 in negative territory (-4.4%), its worst yearly return since 2008. To help you and your clients try to make sense of the market gyrations, we produced a Weekly Market Commentary and a Weekly Economic Commentary earlier this week to offer historical perspective on bear markets, compare the market’s fears and the economic realities, and provide our latest thoughts on fundamentals, the Federal Reserve, the government shutdown, and the potential durability of the market’s recent low. Today on the LPL Research blog, we’ll post a summary of the Weekly Economic Commentary, followed by a Weekly Market Commentary summary tomorrow.
Slew of manufacturing PMI. Markit Manufacturing PMI reports from a dozen countries, including the U.S. and China, showed overall activity remains steady and in expansionary territory across most of Europe, while Asia weakened last month. In a sign that it’s likely faring worse in the trade spat, Chinese data fell into contractionary territory in December for the first time in 19 months. The slowdown comes as gov’t officials are already tapping the brakes on the economy through deleveraging, among other initiatives, and the drop in Chinese activity reverberated around the region as other export-oriented countries posted weaker-than-expected figures as well. With the U.S. remaining firmly in expansionary territory, it bodes well for face-to-face trade negotiations slated to start next week.
- S. Markit PMI Manufacturing SA (Final)
- Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing SA (Final)
- Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing SA (Final)
- France Markit PMI Manufacturing SA (Final)
- Italy Markit PMI Manufacturing SA
- S. ADP Employment Survey SA
- S. BEA Domestic Auto Sales SAAR
- S. Initial Claims SA
- S. ISM Manufacturing SA
- China Caixin Services PMI
- Nonfarm Payrolls SA
- Germany Markit PMI Services SA (Final)
- Eurozone CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y (Preliminary)
- Eurozone Markit PMI Services SA (Final)
- Eurozone PPI NSA Y/Y
- France CPI NSA M/M (Preliminary)
- France Markit PMI Services SA (Final)
- Italy Markit PMI Services SA
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