President delays tariff increase amid “substantial progress.” In a widely-expected move, President Trump indicated that tariff increases slated to take effect March 1 will be delayed amid “substantial progress” on structural issues in trade talks, including IP protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services, currency, and others. A new deadline was not provided, though the president indicated a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping would take place to “conclude the agreement” assuming that progress continues.
Earnings held steady over the past week. With 88% of S&P 500 Index companies having reported, fourth quarter 2018 year-over-year earnings growth is tracking to 16.3%, marginally above prior estimates and slightly below the prior week. Energy has produced the biggest upside surprise for the quarter among the S&P sectors, followed by communication services. Slower global growth and trade tensions have contributed to a 3.1% cut to 2019 S&P 500 earnings estimates during reporting season, slightly more than the average reduction. The lower bar and a potential China trade deal may facilitate near-term upside surprises. During the week of February 25, 37 S&P 500 companies will report fourth quarter results.
Economic data FAQs. Investors are sifting through a deluge of backlogged data after the government shutdown. As data has caught up, however, many reports have missed consensus estimates, stoking fears that Wall Street may be overlooking a slowdown in the U.S. economy. In this week’s Weekly Economic Commentary, we’ll address some questions we’ve heard about the economic landscape recently, and provide our thoughts on what recent data has shown.
Market related FAQs. The impressive bounce in equities continues, with the S&P 500 Index now up nearly 19% since the December 24 lows. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we’ll examine five of the top questions we’ve received recently regarding the current state of the stock market.
9 in a row. The Dow is up 9 consecutive weeks, the longest such streak since 1995. Today on the LPL Research blog we will put in perspective just how rare this event is and why it actually could be a positive signal for future strength.
Week ahead. First preliminary fourth quarter gross domestic product headlines the U.S. economic docket. In Europe, a host of consumer price inflation (CPI) data will be released with France, Germany, and the composite Eurozone reporting. In Asia, Japan will report CPI figures as well, along with unemployment. Track these and other important events on our Weekly Global Economic & Policy Calendar.
- Japan Leading Index (Dec)
- Housing Starts (MoM, Dec)
- S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Dec)
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Feb)
- Pending Home Sales (MoM, Jan)
- Durable Goods Orders (Dec)
- Eurozone Economic Confidence Index (Feb)
- Japan Industrial Production (Preliminary, Jan)
- China Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- GDP Report (QoQ, Q4 2018, Initial and First Revision)
- Germany CPI Report (Preliminary, Feb)
- Japan Jobless Rate (Jan)
- Japan Tokyo CPI Report (Feb)
- Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- Core PCE (MoM, Dec)
- Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- University of Michigan Sentiment Index (Feb)
- Japan Consumer Confidence Index (Feb)
- Germany Unemployment Claims Rate (Feb)
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Jan)
- Eurozone CPI Report (Feb)
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