What Happens When January, February, and March Are All Higher?

What a start to 2019! The S&P 500 Index had its best first quarter since 1998—gaining 13.1%. Taking a deeper look at the data reveals another rare occurrence: The S&P 500 was higher each of the first three months of the year for the first time since 2013.

“You may not think so, but when the S&P 500 has been higher each of the first three months to kick off a year, the returns the rest of the year actually got better,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “This won’t be an easy ride, and we fully expect some volatility, but this is definitely a bullet point for the bulls in 2019.”

As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the S&P 500 returns in April, the second quarter, and the rest of the year have all been stronger than the average year following three straight monthly gains to kick off a new year. Incredibly, the final nine months have been higher 18 out of 19 times! Of course, don’t get too giddy just yet, as there has been an average pullback during the final nine months of 9.4%.

When the S&P 500 Index has been up each of the first three months, returns have been stronger

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

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