Market Update: Wed, Apr 10, 2019 | LPL Financial Research

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Daily Insights

ECB left interest rates unchanged. In a surprise to no one, the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged and reiterated its plans to hold rates through 2019. The deposit rate stands at -0.4%. Trade uncertainty and Brexit are among the primary concerns for the central bank, which has reportedly discussed plans to provide more stimulus if economic growth in the region doesn’t improve later this year. Discussions on unintended consequences of negative rates are ongoing.

Fed meeting minutes preview. With the minutes of last month’s monetary policy meeting due out this afternoon, investors will look for further insight regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely intentions over the balance of the year after it lowered rate-hike expectations from two to zero, and announced that it will start tapering the runoff of its balance sheet.

Core inflation data supports Fed policy shift. The core Consumer Price Index for March rose 0.1% from the prior month and 2.0% from a year earlier. Both measures were below expectations, though a change in data collection methods for apparel led to a 1.9% month-over-month decline in the component. Though not its preferred inflation gauge, the data provide some additional support for the Fed after it hit the brakes on its rate-hike campaign at last month’s meeting.

December Low Indicator has bulls smiling. After the best first quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 1998, the big question is: What happens next? According to the December Low Indicator, which has a perfect track record going back to 1950, we may be in for more gains over the balance of the year. We’ll explain later today on the LPL Research blog.

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Wednesday

  • CPI Report (Mar)
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes (Mar)
  • UK Industrial Production (Feb)
  • European Central Bank Rate Decision (Apr)
  • China CPI Report (Mar)
  • China PPI Report (Mar)
  • China Foreign Direct Investment (Mar)

Thursday

  • PPI Report (Mar)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (Apr. 6)
  • Germany CPI Report (Mar)
  • China Exports (Mar)
  • China Trade Balance (Mar)
  • China Imports (Mar)

Friday

  • Import Price Index (Mar)
  • Export Price Index (Mar)
  • University of Michigan Sentiment Index (Preliminary, Apr)
  • Eurozone Industrial Production (Feb)

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Index data obtained via FactSet

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