Global rate rally. Long-term rates have rallied around the world recently, likely in response to a Brexit delay, progress in trade talks, and improving China data. The 10-year Treasury yield posted its largest two-week increase since the beginning of October, while the 10-year German bund yield notched its best two-week rally in 14 months. Greater international demand has put significant pressure on Treasury yields this year, so any improvement we see in rates overseas should help lift U.S. yields.
Inflation angst. Another weight on long-term U.S. yields has been speculation of slowing inflation. Deteriorating global conditions earlier this year shifted the economic landscape and fueled concerns that domestic inflationary pressures could be too low. Bond investors priced weakening inflation into rates, which drove the 10-year yield to a 15-month low and briefly inverted the yield curve. Now, yields are rebounding, but inflation data are still sending mixed signals. On the LPL Research blog, we’ll look into the current state of inflation, and what that could mean for yields.
NEW Market Signals podcast. In this week’s podcast, Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch and Senior Strategist Ryan Detrick discuss the current low inflation, what is and isn’t priced into the market, and how it all could play out the rest of 2019. Subscribe to the free Market Signals podcast series on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts!
- Industrial Production (MoM, Mar)
- Japan Trade Balance (Mar)
- Japan Exports (Mar)
- Japan Imports (Mar)
- China Industrial Production (Mar)
- China GDP Report (Q1)
- Trade Balance (Feb)
- Federal Reserve Beige Book (Apr)
- Japan Industrial Production (Feb)
- Eurozone Trade Balance (Feb)
- Eurozone CPI Report (Mar)
- Retail Sales (MoM Mar)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 13)
- Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary Apr)
- Markit US Services PMI (Preliminary Apr)
- Markit US Composite PMI (Preliminary Apr)
- Leading Index (MoM Mar)
- Germany PPI Report (Mar)
- Japan CPI Report (Mar)
- Housing Starts (MoM Mar)
- Building Permits (MoM Mar)
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