The win streak is over. Stocks fell only slightly yesterday, but closed meaningfully off their early morning highs. In the end, the Dow snapped a 6-day win streak and the S&P 500 Index ended a 5-day win streak. After the worst month of May for the S&P 500 since 2010, stocks have bounced back nicely in June. In fact, the S&P 500 is up 4.9% so far in June, which would be the best June since 1999. Additionally, after seven trading sessions, the S&P 500 is off to its best start for any month since October 2015.
Consumer inflation slows. Year-over-year growth in the core Consumer Price Index (core CPI) (excluding food and energy prices) slowed to 2% in May, down from 2.1% in April. Consumer inflation has slowed this year even as producer price and wage growth has remained healthy, likely because of softening global demand. Today’s weaker CPI report could increase speculation that a Federal Reserve rate cut is looming in the near-term.
Sentiment surges. Business and consumer confidence surged to highs last month despite renewed uncertainty in the U.S.-China trade dispute. Upbeat sentiment is an encouraging sign for demand, but we’re not sure if this uptick will last. We’ll dig into recent sentiment data later today on the LPL Research blog.
NEW Market Signals podcast. Listen to this week’s episode, in which Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch and Equity Strategist & Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Buchbinder discuss the continuing effects of the trade war and what it means for the U.S. and global economies over the next several months. Subscribe to the free Market Signals podcast series on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts!
- Import Price Index (May); Cons: -0.3%, LP: 0.2%
- Export Price Index (May); LP: 0.2%
- Initial Jobless Claims (Jun. 8); LP: 215K
- Germany CPI Report (May)
- Eurozone Industrial Production (Apr)
- China Industrial Production (May)
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate (May)
- Retail Sales (May); Cons: 0.6%, LP: -0.2%
- Industrial Production (May); Cons: 0.2%, LP: -0.5%
- University of Michigan Sentiment Index (Preliminary, Jun); LP: 100
- Japan Industrial Production (Apr)
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