Market Update: Mon, June 17, 2019 | LPL Financial Research


Daily Insights

Stocks opened slightly higher with the Fed and trade in focus. Here are the headlines getting the most attention to start the week. First, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is talking down expectations for a U.S.-China breakthrough at the G20 Summit next week. Second, public hearings begin this week regarding the next round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Third, China has reiterated it is prepared for a protracted trade war. Fourth, consensus is calling for the removal of the word “patience” from the statement and no rate cut at this week’s Fed meeting. And fifth, Iran is enriching uranium, keeping geopolitical risk in focus.

A potential rate cut may give stocks a lift. Stocks have benefited from increasing hopes of a Fed rate cut recently, pulling the S&P 500 Index to within 2% of its record high set on April 30. On June 4 Fed Chair Jay Powell signaled a possible cut by saying “we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” and since then the S&P 500 is up 5.4%. The central bank’s verbal pivot, partly a response to trade tensions, has markets aggressively pricing in a rate cut in July. Will a July rate cut give stocks a boost? It depends on where we are in the business cycle, as we discuss in this week’s blog and Weekly Market Commentary due out later today.

Setting the stage. We’re not expecting the Fed to change its policy rate at this week’s meeting, but we’re watching for policymakers to address plans for a rate adjustment through a change in language and economic projections. We’ll outline our expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting in this week’s Weekly Economic Commentary.

The week ahead. The main event this week is the two-day Fed meeting, which will conclude with a policy announcement and post-meeting press conference on June 19. Policymakers are scheduled to provide updated rate and economic projections at the conclusion of the meeting. The Bank of Japan and Bank of England will also meet this week, and Markit is scheduled to release preliminary manufacturing data for several global regions. Track these and other important events on our Weekly Global Economic & Policy Calendar.


Click Here for our detailed Weekly Economic Calendar


  • Empire Manufacturing (Jun)


  • Housing Starts (MoM, May)
  • Building Permits (MoM, May)
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (Apr)
  • Eurozone CPI Report (May)
  • Japan Trade Balance (May)
  • Japan Exports (May)
  • Japan Imports (May)


  • Federal Reserve Rate Decision (Jun)
  • Bank of Japan Rate Decision (Jun)


  • Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 15)
  • Leading Index (MoM, May)
  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Preliminary, Jun)
  • Japan CPI Report (May)
  • Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary, Jun)


  • Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary, Jun)
  • Markit US Services PMI (Preliminary, Jun)
  • Existing Home Sales (MoM, May)
  • Markit/BME Germany Manufactruring PMI (Preliminary, Jun)
  • Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary, Jun)


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

All company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC).

Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not FDIC or NCUA/NCUSIF Insured | No Bank or Credit Union Guarantee | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by Any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

Index data obtained via FactSet


For Public Use – Tracking # 1-863925 (6/20)