Payrolls bounce back. The U.S. job market bounced back last month after a weak May. Nonfarm payrolls rose 224K in June, beating consensus estimates for a 160K gain. Employers have added jobs for 105 straight months, by far the longest streak of job creation on record. Market participants still anticipate a Fed rate cut in July, though a strong labor market is making a weaker case for softer Fed policy. We’ll dive more into the June jobs report in today’s LPL Research blog post.
The latest on trade. US negotiators are set to travel to Beijing next week to discuss the ongoing trade dispute. Sources say Beijing wants to see how the Trump administration looks at the situation with Huawei before making any future purchases of US soybeans. This sticking point is key for discussions and should things breakdown, the big question is will Washington proceed with new tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods? Both sides continue to express optimism, but we are still far from a resolution. At this time, we continue to expect some type of agreement on trade with China by the fall, as the negatives for both sides are simply so great.
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