Checking On The Calendar

“I’ve been on a calendar, but I’ve never been on time.” Marilyn Monroe

We’ve pondered where the S&P 500 Index could go now that it’s near our fair-value target of 3,000. As we discussed in the latest Weekly Market Commentary: Riding the Wave…For Now, the path of least resistance very well could be higher, but the odds continue to increase that some type of pullback could take place.

“On a total return basis, the S&P 500 hasn’t been lower during a presidential pre-election year going back to World War II,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Historically, stocks peak right around now and chop around until Santa comes to town.”

As our LPL Chart of the Day, S&P 500 Index Tends to Get Choppy Here, illustrates, stocks show strength right out of the gate during a pre-election year, similar to what we’ve seen so far in 2019. What has our attention now, though, is that the S&P 500 typically peaks around mid-July and chops sideways for largely the rest of the year.

Source: LPL Research, FactSet 07/22/19

We encourage suitable investors to prepare for possible market volatility and consider taking advantage of weakness to rebalance their portfolios to their long-term objectives.


Please see the Midyear Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets for additional description and disclosure.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90.

Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against a loss.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

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