Sticking near 3,000. U.S. stocks are slightly higher in early trading, as the S&P 500 Index appears set to test the July 26 all-time closing high at 3,025. Despite potential market-moving events, volatility has been largely absent from markets in the past two weeks, with the benchmark index closing within 1% of our year-end fair value estimate of 3,000 the past 11 trading days. Cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials are improving, but the Russell 2000 Index has once again stalled out near 1,600, a level that has served as resistance for nearly a year. Most global markets have bounced as well over the past month, but on a technical basis we would continue to favor U.S. large caps.
Where’s the September volatility? September is well known as one of the worst months of the year historically, yet this month, the S&P 500 is up 2.7% and a chip shot away from new all-time highs. Even more amazing are all the scary headlines we’ve seen the past few weeks, yet we’ve seen virtually no volatility. From the European Central Bank meeting, the Fed meeting, a tick higher in inflation, a historic jump in crude oil, and Middle East turmoil to a big spike in the overnight funding market (better known as the repo market), there have been many reasons on the surface to expect a rocky September. Yet, over the past 10 trading sessions, the S&P 500 incredibly has closed less than .10% from the previous day’s close six times. We will take a closer look at this historic calm later today on the LPL Research blog.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.
All company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges, Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.
All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC).
Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
|Not FDIC or NCUA/NCUSIF Insured | No Bank or Credit Union Guarantee | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by Any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit
If your advisor is located at a bank or credit union, please note that the bank/credit union is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment advisor. Registered representatives of LPL may also be employees of the bank/credit union. These products and services are being offered through LPL or its affiliates, which are separate entities from, and not affiliates of, the bank/credit union. Securities and insurance offered through LPL or its affiliates are:
For Public Use – Tracking # 1-895681