Stocks rise. U.S. stocks are higher this morning on news that the United States and China have both agreed to roll back tariffs if a limited trade agreement is reached. Today’s headlines are the latest in a string of optimistic trade developments between the two nations, and all signs point to the United States and China signing a “phase one” trade deal before the end of the year.
European Commission cuts European growth forecast. The European Commission cut its euro-area growth forecast to 1.1% for 2019 and 1.2% for 2020. The new forecasts are slightly below Bloomberg consensus forecasts for the region, and slightly above our expectations for growth near 1%.
Bank of England provides gloomy outlook. The Bank of England held interest rates unchanged and lowered its 2020 growth outlook for the U.K. while providing somewhat dour commentary on risks to growth, including a possible disorderly exit from the European Union (Brexit). The central bank’s bias points to a rate cut in 2020, which markets are increasingly pricing in.
Solid rebound for international stocks. Global stocks are joining the march to record highs. On November 6, the MSCI All-World Country Index closed 1.5% away from an all-time high reached in January 2018. Emerging market and developed market stocks have outpaced U.S. stocks since August, even though they have yet to reach record highs. International performance has benefited from signs of stabilizing growth in international economies, a weaker dollar, and the U.S.-China trade de-escalation.
Productivity growth fades. Stalled business spending is now having ripple effects on U.S. company efficiency. Nonfarm productivity declined in the third quarter after averaging the fastest growth since 2014 in the first two quarters of the year. Sustained productivity growth has been a tough feat in this economic expansion, thanks to muted capital expenditures growth for most of this cycle. Today on the LPL Research blog, we’ll dig into third-quarter productivity data, and highlight why productivity is an important economic trend to watch.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.
All company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges, Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.
All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC).
Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
- Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
- Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
- Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
- May Lose Value
For Public Use – Tracking # 1-914200