Leading economic indicators barely grew year over year in December 2019.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, fell 0.3% month over month in December. However, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the LEI rose 0.1% year over year in December, pointing to economic growth ahead. Continue reading →
Pushing higher. U.S. stocks are relatively unchanged as investors weigh improving global data and concerns around a dangerous viral outbreak in China. The S&P 500 Index was down for the week through Thursday’s close, in what could be only its third weekly decline since the beginning of October. Continue reading →
Stock markets around the world have hit new record highs this year, but U.S. small cap stocks have yet to join the party.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index has outpaced the Russell 2000 Index, its small cap counterpart, over the past year. Continue reading →
Global headlines. U.S. stocks are slightly lower this morning as investors assess several global headlines. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 2.8%, its worst daily drop in eight months, on news that China is expanding travel restrictions to curb a dangerous viral outbreak. Continue reading →
Last week in our LPL Research blog, we took a closer look at how stocks have performed during an election year. We found that since 1940, the S&P 500 Index hasn’t been lower during an election year when an incumbent president has been up for reelection. Continue reading →
Stocks rebound. U.S. stocks are higher this morning, rebounding from the S&P 500 Index’s 0.3% decline that kicked off this holiday-shortened week. Investors are watching a stream of earnings reports this morning as the fourth quarter earnings season heats up. Global stocks are also higher on news that China is taking measures to contain an outbreak of a deadly respiratory virus. Continue reading →
As the economic expansion caps its first decade, we thought it’d be a good time to check on LPL Research’s leading indicators in our Recession Watch Dashboard.
As you can see in our latest update and in the LPL Chart of the Day, the overall view hasn’t changed much. We believe we are in the later stages of this economic expansion, but we still see little threat of imminent recession. The current expansion is the longest on record, at 126 months, but the economy has grown at a slow and steady rate. We believe this measured pace, along with supportive fiscal policy, has contributed to this cycle’s continued durability.
Continue reading →
Stepping back. U.S. stocks are lower this morning after the S&P 500 Index capped last week with three straight record highs. Reports of a deadly virus outbreak in China have weighed on global markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index poised for its biggest slide since November. Continue reading →
2020 is off to a roaring start, picking up right where 2019 left off. Many investors are eyeing the upcoming presidential election as an impending storm for the stock market. In the four-year presidential cycle, pre-election years have tended to be the strongest for stocks, as sitting presidents have taken measures to boost the economy and stock market higher to garner votes. It sure worked out well last year, with the S&P 500 Index’s 31% total return. Continue reading →
Charging past 3,300. Trade optimism and fourth-quarter earnings results continue to lift U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.8% on Thursday, breaking above the 3,300 level to close at another record high. Equity markets continue to make new highs with several sectors participating. Continue reading →