Leading Indicators Slowing But Still Growing


Leading economic indicators barely grew year over year in December 2019.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, fell 0.3% month over month in December. However, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the LEI rose 0.1% year over year in December, pointing to economic growth ahead. Continue reading

Market Update: Wed, Jan 22, 2020 | LPL Financial Research

Daily Insights

Stocks rebound. U.S. stocks are higher this morning, rebounding from the S&P 500 Index’s 0.3% decline that kicked off this holiday-shortened week. Investors are watching a stream of earnings reports this morning as the fourth quarter earnings season heats up. Global stocks are also higher on news that China is taking measures to contain an outbreak of a deadly respiratory virus. Continue reading

Recession Watch Update


As the economic expansion caps its first decade, we thought it’d be a good time to check on LPL Research’s leading indicators in our Recession Watch Dashboard.

As you can see in our latest update and in the LPL Chart of the Day, the overall view hasn’t changed much. We believe we are in the later stages of this economic expansion, but we still see little threat of imminent recession. The current expansion is the longest on record, at 126 months, but the economy has grown at a slow and steady rate. We believe this measured pace, along with supportive fiscal policy, has contributed to this cycle’s continued durability.
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A Closer Look At Election Years


2020 is off to a roaring start, picking up right where 2019 left off. Many investors are eyeing the upcoming presidential election as an impending storm for the stock market. In the four-year presidential cycle, pre-election years have tended to be the strongest for stocks, as sitting presidents have taken measures to boost the economy and stock market higher to garner votes. It sure worked out well last year, with the S&P 500 Index’s 31% total return. Continue reading

Market Update: Fri, Jan 17, 2020 | LPL Financial Research

Daily Insights

Charging past 3,300. Trade optimism and fourth-quarter earnings results continue to lift U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.8% on Thursday, breaking above the 3,300 level to close at another record high. Equity markets continue to make new highs with several sectors participating. Continue reading