Markets remain volatile on coronavirus uncertainty. Despite a strong day for the S&P 500 Index yesterday on stimulus prospects and greater election clarity, we expect market volatility to continue. The overnight news cycle pulled S&P 500 futures meaningfully lower as containment efforts intensified. Until we have a clearer picture of the course of the virus, market volatility will likely persist and any market recovery is more likely to be a process than a rapid reversal.
U.S. services sector expansion points to economic resilience. The Institute for Supply Management’s Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February surprised strongly to the upside, coming in at 57.3 versus consensus expectations of 54.8, a one-year high, while new orders rose sharply. The strong reading contributed to Citigroup’s U.S. Economic Surprise Index, an average of key economic data compared to expectations, to rise to levels not seen since early 2018. While we know the economic impact of the coronavirus will become increasingly apparent, the U.S. economy has been holding steady heading into the period of uncertainty.
Treasury yield retreat approaches largest of cycle. The 10-year Treasury yield has now declined 2.25% since hitting 3.24% in November 2018, its second-largest decline of the cycle without a major reversal. In 2011 and 2012, interest rates had fallen 2.32%. Declines have narrowed the still meaningful yield gap with international bonds and made valuations increasingly expensive. For more discussion of what recent declines may mean for bond investors, see the LPL Research blog, to be posted later today.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor that is not an LPL affiliate, please note LPL makes no representation with respect to such entity.
- Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
- Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
- Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
- May Lose Value
For Public Use – Tracking 1-960726