Monday Markets and What May Lie Ahead. Saudi Arabia’s decision to start an oil price war has roiled a market already beset by uncertainty as market participants tried to gauge the economic impact of the coronavirus. We discuss the latest developments and our thoughts on what’s ahead on the LPL Research blog, scheduled for posting later today.
Recession Watch. LPL Research remains on recession watch with plunging oil prices, skittish bond markets, and wavering consumer confidence as the big watch-out areas. We estimate that the markets are now pricing in a 60% or greater chance of recession which is more than we would think given current economic strength and resilience. That said, though the odds of a recession have dramatically risen, we continue to view it as still the less likely outcome given the data we know right now. Patience and adherence to plan may be the best course of action for suitable investors.
Weekly Market Commentary. Although there isn’t much reason to celebrate this morning, the current bull market started 11 years ago today. Could it make it another year? That is still our base case, but the worries are adding up quickly. This week, in our latest Weekly Market Commentary we take a look at three reasons the bull will make it another year, along with three reasons it won’t.
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