Wednesday, January 6, 2021
2020 in 20 Charts
2020 was a historic year in many ways, which made it hard to highlight just a few charts. So in honor of 2020, we picked 20 charts that show how amazing–and devastating—2020 really was. Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick reviews 2020 in 20 charts in this YouTube video.
S&P 500 Index modestly lower after Georgia run-off election
- Nasdaq 100 is firmly lower this morning.
- 10-year Treasury yield is trading above 1% for the first time since March 2020.
- European stocks are firmly higher in midday trading.
- Asian markets closed mixed, with China outperforming and continued weakness from Japan.
Georgia Senate elections update
Georgia voters went to the polls Tuesday for two Senate run-off races, with control of the Senate hanging in the balance.
- Votes are still being counted, but it appears increasingly likely that Democrats will take control of the Senate.
- The Democratic candidate holds a nearly insurmountable lead in one race and a small lead in the second, based on current reported vote counts as of Wednesday morning.
- It will still take several days for all the votes to be counted, but the Democrats are now strongly favored to take control of the Senate.
How Georgia election results may affect Congress’s work
- Even with potential control of both chambers of Congress, Democratic majorities would be slim, and centrist Democrats—and even Republicans—would have considerable influence on future legislation.
- Democratic control of Congress potentially could lead to a higher corporate tax rate, higher personal tax rates for the wealthy, and some regulatory tightening.
- With Democrats in charge, the odds of an additional stimulus package also increase, as does the likelihood of an infrastructure bill emphasizing areas where there’s bipartisan support.
Big bounce in manufacturing
The economy continues to impress. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed that manufacturing surprisingly soared in December. The number came in at 60.7, tied for the second highest print of the past 15 years and above 50 (the level for an expansion) for six consecutive months. We’ve found that manufacturing leads earnings, and this is another positive sign for earnings growth in 2021.
US indexes are moving in different directions in early trading, with the Nasdaq falling sharply and the Russell 2000 Index rallying.
- The Nasdaq has support at 12,050, while the Russell 2000 needs a 2.4% gain to make a new record high.
- The US dollar is continuing lower.
- The most significant move this morning might be in Treasuries, where the 10-year yield has broken out above 1%, potentially targeting a move toward 1.3–1.4%.
COVID-19 news. The United States reported 229,000 new cases Tuesday, up 13.3% from Tuesday of last week. The seven-day average of new daily cases rose to a new high as low testing activity during the holiday season exits the data (source: Johns Hopkins).
- Arizona now has more people hospitalized per capita than any other state, with California, Alabama, and Nevada not far behind.
- Headlines continue to center around the slow pace of vaccinations, both in the United States and in Europe (source: COVID Tracking Project).
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