Thursday, February 11, 2021
New Street View video: Three Types of Lies
LPL Financial Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick illustrates how you can take any data and tell any story you want, but when you want to invest, you want to know what really matters. Watch the Three Types of Lies Street View video.
US stocks open modestly higher with impeachment trial in the spotlight
- European markets are broadly higher in midday trading with Germany leading.
- Most Asian markets closed for Lunar New Year holiday.
Jobless claims tick higher
- 793,000 Americans filed for unemployment insurance according to the Department of Labor, above Bloomberg consensus forecasts calling for 760,000 and higher than the prior week’s number.
- Continuing claims also missed estimates, with 4.5 million remaining on unemployment insurance versus Bloomberg estimates of 4.4 million.
- The continued volatility in the labor market may embolden Congress to pass a larger stimulus bill, and may also keep inflation at bay.
EU cuts growth forecast
- The European Union (EU) cut its 2021 forecast for euro-area growth from 4.2% to 3.8%.
- Officials noted easing of virus containment measures by midyear is key given limits on travel.
- Europe is unlikely to fully recover lost economic output from the pandemic until well into 2022.
The OECD signals continued steady global growth
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) leading indicator has risen the past five months, led by Asia.
- India was the only country to receive an upgrade in January—from stable growth to steady increase.
- Canada was the only country to see a downgrade—from steady increase to stabilizing growth.
Inflation or reflation?
- The debate about inflation is heating up, with many concerned that additional stimulus may overheat the economy.
- The market has been sending signals that inflation is at least normalizing, so will inflation be a major concern for investors in 2021? We take a closer look in today’s LPL Research blog.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only major benchmark to move higher and set a record high on Wednesday. Other indexes dipped slightly.
- The technicals for the Dow remain strong, as the late January lows just below 30,000 appeared to be a successful retest of the breakout above the February 2020 highs.
- That level (29,856) remains the first level of technical support.
- The United States reported 95,000 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, the fourth consecutive day under 100,000 (source: COVID Tracking Project).
- Wednesday also marked the 25th straight double-digit week-over-week decline for the 7-day moving average of new cases.
- Additionally, those currently hospitalized with COVID-19 dropped below 80,000 for the first time since November 2020.
- The 7-day average of new hospitalizations tallied its 13th consecutive week over week decline
LPL Research Says It’s Time for an Upgrade
Stocks bounced back big time last week, on the heels of the worst week since late October. The usual suspects of strong earnings, fiscal and monetary policy, and better vaccine news all contributed. Listen this week as Ryan Detrick and Jeff Buchbinder put it all together, discussing why they are upgrading their views on the Market Signals podcast, also available on the LPL Research YouTube channel.
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