Wednesday, March 24, 2021
High frequency data one year after lockdown. It’s been a little over a year since the first COVID-19 restrictions were implemented in the United States, when California put in place the first stay-at-home orders on March 19, 2020. We take a closer look at how high frequency data on personal activity has changed over the course of the past year in today’s LPL Research blog, available at 12pm ET.
- European markets are modestly lower in midday trading with Germany underperforming.
- Asian stocks were firmly lower overnight and fell the most in two weeks, with Hong Kong entering correction territory down 10% since its February high.
What a year
The bull market officially turned one yesterday and in the end, the S&P 500 Index added 74.8% over the past year.
- We discussed what could happen in year two in The Second Year Of The Bull Market Begins, but it is important to remember stocks tend to do well after corrections.
- Since 1980, the S&P 500 was up 24.9% one year after a 10% correction and higher more than 90% of the time.
- Two years out the returns get even better, up 37.5% on average with a very impressive 46.6% median return.
- They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale and people run out of the store screaming—let’s remember that the next time things go on sale.
Tuesday saw the broadest selling pressure in nearly a month, as decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 6.6:1. The Nasdaq’s 1.1% fall led large cap benchmarks to the downside; however, selling was most pronounced in small caps as the Russell 2000 fell 3.6%. The Nasdaq Composite has support at 12,397, while 2060 marks support for the Russell 2000.
The United States reported 59,000 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, consistent with the trend we’ve seen over the past couple weeks since the winter storm in the central U.S. (source worldometers). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- Vaccination efforts in the U.S. continue to accelerate, with just shy of 70% of the population age 65 or older receiving at least one dose of the vaccine (source: CDC). https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
- Meanwhile, over 25% of the total population in the U.S. has received at least one dose of the vaccine.
- In a surprise reversal, German Chancellor Angela Merkel canceled Germany’s planned 5-day Easter shutdown.
LPL Research in the Media
LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick was quoted by The Irish Times on the bull market reaching year two.
LPL Financial Head of Investment Research Jason Hoody joined Nasdaq #TradeTalks to discuss trends in sustainable investing. You can watch the interview here.
The Second Year Of The Bull Market Begins
LPL Research strategists discuss the end of the bear market and the trends of a bull market in year two. Learn more in this week’s Weekly Market Commentary.
The Bull Market Turns One
On the LPL Market Signals podcast, Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder consider what could be in store for stocks in year two of the bull market, along with a discussion of rates and the latest Federal Reserve meeting.
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