Friday, April 30, 2021
Top Story
Here comes May
- It is the final day of April and stocks are looking at one of their best April’s ever, which opens the door to May and the worst six months of the year.
- May through October is historically the worst six months of the year for the S&P 500 Index, up only 1.7% on average.
- This time period is commonly known as “Sell in May and go away.”
- The catch is these six months have been higher 8 of the past 10 years, so selling and going away wouldn’t have been wise.
- We will discuss this in more detail on the LPL Research blog, available today after 12p.m. ET.
Daily Insights
U.S. stocks open lower following Thursday’s all-time high
- It’s been an early cycle week, with small caps outperforming large caps and value outperforming growth.
- European stocks are mixed at midday as economic data releases showed little, if any, growth in Eurozone nations in the first quarter.
- Asian markets traded lower overnight with Hong Kong underperforming following weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing data.
Technical update
Stocks closed near session highs Thursday, as the S&P 500 moved from slightly negative at one point, to a 0.7% gain at the close. Only the technology and healthcare sectors closed in the red, while communications led with a 2.8% gain. Markets are falling in early trading and we see first support for the S&P 500 at 4118 followed by the 4000 level.
COVID-19 news
The United States reported 51,000 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, the 14th consecutive week over week decline (source: New York Times).
- Cases in northern states have continued to decline, while trends in the south are mostly flat.
- The pace of vaccinations has declined (below 3 million per day), but 55% of the adult population has received at least one dose of the vaccine.
LPL Research in the Media
LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick joined Yahoo!Finance recently to discuss stocks during the first 100 days of the Joe Biden presidency.
Is All The Good News Priced In?
Investors are appropriately optimistic, given the backdrop of a dramatically improving economy, the rapid pace of vaccinations, massive levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus, and surging earnings. Learn more in this week’s Weekly Market Commentary.
Let’s Talk About Valuations
On the LPL Market Signals podcast, Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder discuss why stocks might not be as expensive as many think and how the economy continues to improve faster than expected.
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