Wednesday, June 30, 2021
Big Jump In Confidence
Consumers are feeling better, as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped to 127.3 in June, the highest level since February 2020.
- This was well above the 119.0 that was expected and 120.0 seen last month in May.
- With decreases in COVID-19 cases and record high asset prices, confidence has soared back. But worries over inflation expectations are near 10-year highs, so all isn’t perfect.
- Given the consumer makes up nearly 70% of the overall economy, this is yet another sign of a likely very strong economic recovery in the second half of 2021.
US equities little changed today after reaching new highs yesterday.
- Stocks are near flat early in trading, on a very light news day.
- European markets are lower through midday trading as investors exhibit concerns about the Delta COVID-19 variant’s effect on future economic results.
- Asian equities finish mostly lower as China’s June manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged lower showing that inflation pressures may be easing.
Here Comes July
June is nearly in the book, which opens the door to July.
- The third quarter is historically the worst quarter of the year for stocks, but July is actually quite strong.
- In fact, in a post-election year the S&P 500 Index is up 2.2% on average (since 1950), making it the best month of the year.
- The catch is right around the corner are August and September, two of the historically worst months of the year.
We will discuss July and the third quarter in more detail later today on the LPL Research blog.
Three Things That Worry Us
We explore three things that worry us that could make the market more susceptible to a pullback as we enter the second half of 2021. Learn more in this week’s Weekly Market Commentary.
The Krispy Kreme Indicator
In this week’s LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research discusses why stocks are choppy in typical year two fashion, with many worries are creeping in and the upcoming Krispy Kreme IPO near the top of the list.
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