Thursday, September 22, 2022
A Bit More Pessimistic, A Lot More Realistic
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the target rate by 75 basis points (bp) to a 3.25% upper bound and delivered a more pessimistic outlook in their published Summary of Economic Projections.
The Committee hiked rates at this magnitude for the third consecutive time and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Powell signaled “ongoing increases…will be appropriate.” So at this point, we expect a 50 bp hike at the next meeting in November with additional hikes in the following meetings. If the economy shows resiliency and headline inflation does not ease as much as policymakers prefer, the Fed funds rate could reach 4.50% by mid-2023.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Fed has a lot more work to do in slowing aggregate demand and thereby slowing the rate of inflation. “The Fed tightening cycle does not always induce a recession, but since the Fed is acting particularly aggressively to combat nagging inflation, we see rising recession risks in 2023,” warned LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach.
Recession Risks Rising
The Fed is willing to sacrifice growth for lower inflation. Growth expectations were revised materially lower for this year and the next. The Fed’s new forecast for 2023 GDP growth is 1.2% with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The unemployment rate could increase because the Fed pushes the economy into recession. Or, unemployment could rise because the millions of individuals still on the sidelines finally re-enter the workforce during an unfortunate time when the plethora of job openings dissipate.
The new unemployment rate forecast of 4.4% for both 2023 and 2024 seems reasonable. The economy will be better off the sooner the unemployment rate reaches the so-called “natural rate of unemployment”, which is the rate that is neither too low and inflationary nor too high and recessionary. The Fed is now more aligned with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate of the natural rate of unemployment.
Overall, the economy is on unsure footing. Chairman Powell warned that “no one knows whether this process will lead to a recession, or, if so, how significant that recession would be.”
Inflation may be rolling over. We are already seeing August rents decline in some markets across the U.S. and imported food prices decline, so the upcoming inflation reports could be surprisingly better than expected.
The impacts from recent Fed rate hikes are being quickly passed through to the mortgage market and other credit markets. Variables to watch are auto sales, credit card usage, residential real estate and personal loan demand. Unfortunately, other areas of the real economy have yet to feel the full impact of these aggressive rate hikes. So far, recession indicators are holding up so our base case is still a soft landing but risks are to the downside, especially in Q1 of next year.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. For more information on the risks associated with the strategies and product types discussed please visit https://lplresearch.com/Risks
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Tracking # 1-05328334