Treasury yields have been historically quiet this year.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10-year Treasury yield has bounced around in a 23-basis point (bps) (.23%) range year to date, the second-smallest range at this point in the year since 1974.
Credit leads fixed income sectors over past month. With interest rates moving higher over the past month, accompanied by a modestly-steepening yield curve and a rally in the equity markets, more credit-sensitive sectors of the fixed income market have outperformed. Continue reading
Slow but steady growth may win the race again as the economic expansion nears the 10-year mark.
While muted growth in the current economic expansion has been frustrating at times, especially after a swift and painful downturn amid the 2008 financial crisis, it has helped extend the life of this cycle and keep excesses in check.
Earnings picked up a bit of ground last week. With 484 S&P 500 Index companies having reported, fourth quarter 2018 earnings growth is tracking to 16.7% year over year, 2.5 percentage points (ppt) above mid-January estimates and a 0.4 ppt increase over the prior week. Continue reading
Nasdaq, Dow Win Streaks Reach Double-Digits Amid Spat of Geopolitics
US: S&P 500 Index +0.4%, Dow -0.0%, Nasdaq +0.9%
Europe: STOXX Europe 600 +0.8%, German DAX +1.3% France CAC 40 +1.0%, U.K. FTSE 100 -1.5%
Asia: Japan Nikkei +0.8%, China Shanghai Composite +6.8%, Korea KOSPI +0.0%
Rates/Commodities: 10-Year Treasury yield +11 basis points to 2.76%, WTI crude oil +0.4%, COMEX gold: -1.1%
A series of geopolitical events and top-tier economic data kept U.S. stocks in a narrow trading range this week, while overseas indexes were more of a mixed bag. Continue reading
“March comes in like a lion, and goes out like a lamb.”
What a start to 2019, with the S&P 500 Index up 11.1% after the first two months of 2019 for its best start to a year since 1991. Although we continue to expect the next 10% gain to be quite tough, the good news is that we think new highs could happen later this year and maintain our fair-value target of 3,000 on the S&P 500 Index for 2019.
Here comes March. The S&P 500 Index is off to its best start to a year after the first two months since 1991 (and 1987 for the Dow), and there could be more good news for bulls ahead. Continue reading
After a month-long delay, investors finally have crucial context on economic growth through the end of 2018.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.6% from the prior quarter, higher than consensus estimates for a 2.2% gain. GDP grew 2.9% overall in 2018 and 3.1% year over year for the fourth quarter.
China, Japan feeling the effects of U.S.-imposed tariffs. In China, official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data showed manufacturing factory activity hit a three-year low as new export orders shrank for a ninth straight month. However, total new orders moved back into expansionary territory, suggesting future activity may rebound. J Continue reading
Powell day-one testimony takeaways. In the first of two-days of testimony before Congress, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell provided few new insights regarding the central bank’s views and expectations. Continue reading