Daily Insights
- LPL Research on CNBC. In case you missed it, LPL Research chief investment strategist John Lynch was on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning talking markets. View the interview here.
Author: lplresearch
A Tough Stretch for High-Quality Bonds
It’s been a difficult stretch for fixed-income investors since yields bottomed in the summer of 2016.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 2-year cumulative total return for the broad high-quality bond market (as represented by the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Index) is negative for the first time in nearly 40 years. Continue reading
Market Update: Thursday, July 19, 2018
Daily Insights
- Business confidence holding up well amid escalating trade tensions. Business confidence remains strong based on the latest survey data from the National Federation of Independent Business. The percentage of small business owners indicating it is a good time to expand dipped slightly from May to June but remains above the peaks of the past three decades. Strong data from the Institute for Supply Management tells the same story, even though all Federal Reserve (Fed) districts cited concerns about the continued tightening of the labor market, inflationary pressures, and tariffs in the Fed’s Beige Book.
Market Update: Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Daily Insights
- Solid week for economically-sensitive fixed income. High yield, emerging markets debt (EMD), and bank loans all performed well (as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays Capital High Yield, JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Global, and the S&P/LSTA US Leveraged Loan indexes, respectively) last week alongside solid equity market returns. The continued recovery in EMD bodes well for trade tension fears, as the asset class was previously hit hard by concerns over trade skirmishes and a strengthening dollar. Investment-grade corporates also continued to recover, as fears about interest rate risk and anticipated heavy issuance due to merger and acquisition activity are relenting after pressuring the asset class early in the year.
Market Update: Friday, June 29, 2018
Daily Insights
- Welcome to the third quarter. Historically the third quarter can be tricky for stocks, but especially so during a midterm year. In fact, going back to 1896 and the start of the Dow, this is the second worst quarter of the four-year presidential cycle. Could we be in for trouble this time around? We address this important question today on the LPL Research blog.
Market Update: Thursday, June 28, 2018
Daily Insights
- LPL Research Senior Market Strategist on CNBC talking markets. In case you missed it, see what Ryan Detrick had to say about the recent strength in small cap stocks and our expectations for the second half of the year.
No Cap In Sight for Capex?
Capital expenditures help increase productivity, and improved productivity is the foundation upon which developed economies can sustain higher growth rates. Recent data, some of which we highlighted yesterday, continue to confirm that we might be seeing a rebound in capex, but how can we know it’s sustainable? Continue reading
Playing the Capex Theme
Capital spending is accelerating while several tailwinds are only just starting to kick in. Capital expenditures (capex) are being supported by several factors, including booming earnings, corporate tax cuts, immediate expensing of capital investments, repatriation of overseas cash, strong business confidence and deregulation. Continue reading
Weekly Update 6/15/2018 – Central Banks Overshadow U.S.—North Korea Summit
US: S&P 500 Index +0.0%, Dow -0.9%, Nasdaq +1.3%
Europe: STOXX Europe 600 +1.0%, German DAX +1.9%, France CAC 40 +1.0%, U.K. FTSE 100 +1.1%
Asia: Japan Nikkei +0.7%, China Shanghai Composite -1.5%, Korea KOSPI -1.9%
Global/Regional: MSCI ACWI +0.1% MSCI EM -0.9% MSCI EAFE +0.2%
Rates/Commodities: 10-Year Treasury yield -2 basis points to 2.92%, WTI crude oil -1.6%, COMEX gold -1.4%
Major U.S. indexes went their separate ways this week as the S&P 500 Index (flat), Nasdaq (rose), and Dow (fell) all reacted differently to a plethora of headline-generating events. Continue reading
The Fed Raised Rates; Tell Me Something I Didn’t Already Know
The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the fed funds target rate 25 basis points (0.25%) to a range of 1.75-2.00%, but that wasn’t news since the market knew it was coming; nor was the increase in median dot plot, which now suggests members expect four hikes total in 2018 instead of three. So what wasn’t expected? Continue reading