Daily Insights

ECB left interest rates unchanged. In a surprise to no one, the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged and reiterated its plans to hold rates through 2019. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Long-term rates sprouting. Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield posted its biggest gain since the beginning of March, rising nine basis points (0.09%) amid improving global data, progress in trade negotiations and a solid March jobs report. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

First quarter earnings season kicks off this week and the bar seems low. Consensus estimates for first quarter earnings season are calling for a slight year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the economic soft patch at the start of the year. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

S&P looks to continue winning streak. Yesterday’s modest gain for the S&P 500 Index gave the index its sixth consecutive higher close, something it hasn’t done since coming off the market bottom in February 2018. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

March global manufacturing surveys point to stable overseas growth. Markit’s global manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.6 in March. According to economics research firm Capital Economics, this level is consistent with world gross domestic product (GDP) slightly below 3% in the first quarter (well below our 3.7% forecast from our Outlook 2019). Continue reading →

Daily Insights

China, Eurozone PMIs ease global growth fears. Services data out of China and the Eurozone allayed some jitters after March PMIs for both were better than expected. China’s reading came in at its highest level in over a year, bouncing off four month lows on stronger demand, new state policies, and improved access to financing. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

The U.S. debt binge. U.S. bond bulls are winning in the global search for yield. Negative-yielding debt has climbed to $10.4 trillion, its highest point since September 2016. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 31 basis points (0.31%) in March as prices jumped, and the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index notched its best monthly performance in four years. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Chinese manufacturing unexpectedly rebounds. Two separate reports showed that manufacturing activity in China expanded month over month and topped consensus forecasts. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Big Q1. The S&P 500 Index is on pace for one of its best first-quarter returns ever, and history suggests more gains could follow. Going back to 1950, after rising at least 10% in the first quarter, the S&P 500 added to those gains over the balance of the year 9 out of 10 times. We will take a closer look at this interesting development today on the LPL Research blog. Continue reading →