Daily Insights
Global stocks decline. Global stocks are down this morning following a strong day for U.S. markets fueled by upbeat trade headlines. The S&P 500 Index rose 1.5% yesterday after the United States announced it would delay some tariffs scheduled to go into effect September 1, and resume trade talks with China in September. Continue reading
Economic Blog
Consumer inflation has surged back after a strong quarter of U.S. consumer demand.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Consumer Inflation Picks Up in July, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.2% year over year last month, its fastest pace of growth in six months. Core CPI has climbed 0.3% month over month in June and July, its biggest two-month gain since 2005.
Daily Insights
Earnings continue gradual improvement. With 90% of S&P 500 Index companies’ results in, second quarter 2019 earnings are tracking down -0.7% year over year, above June 30 estimates of -2.7% despite a more than 1 percentage point drag from Boeing and a modest improvement over the prior week. Continue reading
Daily Insights
Earnings continue gradual improvement. With 90% of S&P 500 Index companies’ results in, second quarter 2019 earnings are tracking down -0.7% year over year, above June 30 estimates of -2.7% despite a more than 1 percentage point drag from Boeing and a modest improvement over the prior week. Continue reading
U.S.-China trade tensions have ratcheted up again following President Trump’s decision to level tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of U.S. imports from China. Combine that with China’s decision to let its currency (the yuan) weaken past the 7 per dollar level, and investors may be more concerned than ever that global tensions could drag down the economy and stocks.
Daily Insights
More trade worries. Global stocks are modestly lower this morning as investors process reports that the United States is delaying a decision to grant some U.S. companies permission to conduct business with Huawei Technologies, a Chinese tech giant that was blacklisted in May amid the U.S.-China trade dispute. Continue reading
The Treasury yield curve is plunging further into inversion, the point at which long-term yields fall below short-term yields.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Yield Curve Plunges Further Into Inversion, points on the yield curve are nearing alarming levels. The spread between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields fell to -31 basis points (-0.31%), approaching the -50 basis points (-0.5%) threshold that has been predictive of recession within a year . At the same time, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields has dropped to 11 basis points (0.11%), closing in on inverted territory for the first time this cycle.
Daily Insights
Markets fixate on the yuan fix. The daily level at which China’s central bank fixes the yuan, a central reference point that determines the range in which the exchange rate is allowed to float, has become the latest proxy for trade risk. Continue reading
We’re a week into August, and trade tensions have been the biggest driver of U.S. stocks, as we predicted in our latest Weekly Market Commentary. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and we are getting a heavy dose of it now.
Daily Insights
Stocks opened sharply amid falling rates, trade fears. The People’s Bank of China set its yuan target just a hair stronger than 7 per dollar, a relief to those worried about the psychologically significant round number, but weaker than some had anticipated. Continue reading