Market Blog
September 30, 2019
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced last week that she would support an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump. We’ve received many requests from our LPL advisors asking what exactly this may mean for the stock market, and here’s what we found.
Daily Insights
Stocks rebound. U.S. stocks are higher this morning, rebounding after a late-afternoon sell-off on Friday. The S&P 500 Index fell about 1% during Friday’s trading session on news that the U.S. is exploring plans to limit U.S. investors’ portfolio flows into China. Continue reading
Market Blog
September 27, 2019
Recent stress in the short-term repurchasing (repo) market has raised concerns about a potential “liquidity crisis” in the financial system.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, interest rates on repo market agreements jumped last week amid a shortage of cash available to lend, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to inject liquidity into the market to stabilize rates.
Daily Insights
Range-bound stocks. U.S. stocks are higher this morning, but the S&P 500 Index is poised for its second straight week of losses. The S&P 500 has yet to break out from a 2.5% trading range it has been in since September 5, and there has been modest weakness under the surface as defensive and large cap stocks have outperformed cyclicals and small cap stocks. Continue reading
Economic Blog
September 26, 2019
The German economy, typically a key growth engine for Europe, is sputtering. In fact, it may be entering a recession as we speak.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, German gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow only 0.1% in both the third and fourth quarters, according to Bloomberg consensus forecasts, after contracting modestly in the second quarter. Most economists use two consecutive quarters of declining GDP as the benchmark for measuring recession.
Daily Insights
Stocks rebound. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index rebounded from its worst selloff in a month, rising 0.6% after the United States announced a trade agreement with Japan, and President Trump signaled that a U.S.-China trade deal could happen “sooner than you think.” Continue reading
Economic Blog
September 25, 2019
Recent stock gains may not just be about a better trade tone or renewed central bank support. U.S. economic fundamentals have also improved.
The Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index, a running average of economic data compared to economists’ forecasts, has recently reached levels not seen since April 2018, as shown in LPL Research’s Chart of the Day. Stocks have climbed back near records as data has improved, and stronger economic trends could provide support for further advances.
Daily Insights
Stocks fall. The S&P 500 Index broke out of its recent range, falling 0.8% on Tuesday amid negative trade headlines and news that an impeachment inquiry was being considered against President Donald Trump. Before yesterday’s decline, the S&P 500 had stalled at 3,000, closing within 1% of that level for 13 straight trading sessions. Continue reading
Market Blog
September 24, 2019
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 34 basis points (0.34%) in the week ending September 13, then gave back half that gain in a 17 basis point (0.17%) slide last week. The benchmark yield hasn’t moved at least 15 basis points (0.15%) in two consecutive weeks since November 2016.
Daily Insights
Stocks rise on trade optimism. U.S. stocks are higher this morning amid news that face-to-face trade talks between the U.S. and China will begin on October 7. The U.S. and China have been expected to meet in October, but investors have been skeptical of the meeting after China canceled visits to U.S. farms last week. Continue reading