Positive Trade, Budget Negotiations offset Mixed Economic Data

US: S&P 500 Index +2.5%, Dow +3.1%, Nasdaq +2.4%
Europe: STOXX Europe 600 +3.0%, German DAX +3.6% France CAC 40 +3.9%, U.K. FTSE 100 +1.7%
Asia: Japan Nikkei +2.8%, China Shanghai Composite +2.5%, Korea KOSPI  +0.9%
Rates/Commodities: 10-Year Treasury yield -4 basis points to 2.66%, WTI crude oil +5.9%, COMEX gold: +0.8%

Positive developments on the U.S. budget and trade negotiations underpinned a solid week of gains, though mixed economic data tempered investors’ enthusiasm. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Bullish sentiment muted despite market strength. The S&P 500 Index is making its best start to a year since 1991, and underlying technicals suggest to us that a retest of the December 24 lows is unlikely. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

China trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed. Though distorted by the Chinese New Year, China’s trade surplus narrowed from $29.9 billion in December to $27.3 billion in January. Overall, Chinese exports (+9.1% year over year) rose more than expected-a positive global economic signal-while imports (-1.5% year over year) fell less than expected. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Likely border/budget deal, trade deadline extension push S&P 500 above key technical support level. Reports out of Washington yesterday indicated that President Trump plans to sign a border security deal that would pave the way for a budget agreement, averting a second government shutdown. Continue reading →

Germany’s benchmark bund yield is on the cusp of negative territory, a symptom of increased appetite for government debt that could eventually weigh on U.S. rates. The 10-year bund yield, which closed at 0.09% (9 basis points, or bps) February 8, could go negative for the first time since late 2016 as Europe’s biggest economy battles economic weakness and falling inflation.

Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Yield curve remains stable, despite declines in 10-year yields. The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries, known as the yield curve, has remained stable since late December with declines in the 2-year yield approximately matching the decline in the 10-year. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Slower, but solid fourth quarter earnings. With two-thirds of S&P 500 Index companies having reported quarterly results so far, corporate America has delivered solid 17% earnings growth for the quarter. However, slowing global growth and trade tensions have challenged the outlook, setting up slower earnings gains in the coming year. Continue reading →