Economic Blog
November 21, 2019
An upbeat economic outlook may be edging out elevated downside risks in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision-making.
Minutes from the Fed’s October meeting showed policymakers discussed both dynamics at length, as they have at several meetings this year. The Fed ended up reducing the fed funds rate by 0.25%, citing low inflation and downside risks as reasons to lower the policy rate for a third time this economic cycle.
Daily Insights
Conflicting signals. U.S. stocks are little changed this morning as conflicting trade headlines pour in. The S&P 500 Index declined on November 20, notching its first string of consecutive declines since October 8, after reports suggested the United States and China may not finalize a limited trade agreement by the end of the year. Continue reading
Market Blog
November 20, 2019
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
The S&P 500 Index has trended higher in an unusually persistent fashion recently. The benchmark has notched 10 record-high closes over the past four weeks, including four straight through November 18.
Daily Insights
On the Recession Watch. With the S&P 500 Index at record highs, our outlook remains optimistic, but we don’t want to be complacent. We take a look at some of our favorite leading indicators to see what they say about the economic expansion and its accompanying bull market. Continue reading
Market Blog
November 19, 2019
“We’re going streaking!” Frank The Tank in Old School
As the bull market continues to make new highs, the past few weeks have seen some amazing market streaks. Here are three that have caught our attention.
Daily Insights
On the Recession Watch. With the S&P 500 Index at record highs, our outlook remains optimistic, but we don’t want to be complacent. We take a look at some of our favorite leading indicators to see what they say about the economic expansion and its accompanying bull market. Continue reading
Daily Insights
Big week for retailers. Third quarter S&P 500 Index earnings growth is tracking to a 2.3% year-over-year decline, nearly 2 percentage points above the September 30 estimate with about 470 S&P 500 companies having reported. Continue reading
Economic Blog
November 15, 2019
U.S. consumers continue to open up their wallets, according to the October retail sales report.
Retail sales rose 0.3% last month, the measure’s seventh gain in eight months. Retail sales’ rise was led by a 1.1% gain in gasoline store sales and a 0.9% increase in sales at “non-store retailers.” Furniture and clothing sales dropped the most of all categories. Control group sales, which we view as a cleaner measure of retail sales’ contribution to gross domestic product (GDP), rose 0.3%. Continue reading
Daily Insights
Seasonal uptrend. It’s beginning to look a lot like a Santa Claus rally as the S&P 500 Index pushes toward its ninth record high in three weeks. The S&P 500 hasn’t posted two consecutive declines for 27 trading days, the longest streak since January 2012. The benchmark also just broke a 24-day streak of being above–but not touching on an intraday basis–its 10-day moving average, which was its longest streak since March 1998. Stocks have crept higher in an unusually calm fashion, with the S&P 500 trading in a range smaller than 1% in 24 straight trading sessions. Continue reading
Economic Blog
November 14, 2019
The long wait may be over. No, we aren’t talking about a U.S.-China trade agreement, though that may come before the end of this year. The two sides continue working on a few sticking points.
We’re talking about stabilizing global growth, which has been elusive over the past two years.