Beige Book Shows Pace of Recovery is Moderating

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Economic Blog

We have seen a historic rebound in economic growth since the US economy emerged from lockdowns, but the pace of the economic rebound has tapered in recent weeks as the effects of fiscal stimulus fade. The recently released Federal Reserve (Fed) Beige Book appears to show that economic activity has become more segmented, with changes in activity varying greatly by sector—consistent with what we’ve seen from manufacturing and services data. Continue reading →

Why Stocks Want President Trump To Win

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Market Blog

Now that we have your attention with that eye-grabbing title, there’s definitely something to the idea that stocks perform better the year after a sitting president wins reelection. “Think about it—usually when a president wins reelection, it means the economy is going pretty strong, so stocks tend to do well,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The flipside is that new leadership in Washington can bring with it potential change that could rock the boat and hold stocks back.” Continue reading →

Market Update: Wed, Oct 21, 2020 | LPL Financial Research

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Daily Insights

Markets opened slightly lower. US equities are flat this morning following Tuesday’s solid session. Optimism over stimulus talk progress prevails, even though Senate approval may be a big hurdle to completing a deal. Improving earnings results so far in this reporting season have been viewed as positive. Most Asian equity markets finished higher, with Hong Kong the standout; most European markets are firmly lower through midday trading.  Continue reading →

Treasury Return Expectations Historically Low

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Market Blog

The 10-year US Treasury yield, at 0.77% as of October 19, is still near historical lows set earlier this year. Historically, 10-year Treasury performance for the next 10 years has tended to track the Treasury yield at the start of the period, as show in the LPL Chart of the Day. By that measure, the return outlook for the 10-year Treasury is just about as low as it’s ever been. As discussed in last week’s blog, Under-the-Radar Signal That Rates May Head Higher, right now the 10-year Treasury yield is not even enough to compensate for inflation, a very unusual relationship historically, but more common in recent years due to low interest rates. Continue reading →

Market Update: Tue, Oct 20, 2020 | LPL Financial Research

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Daily Insights

US equities look to rebound from Monday’s selloff. The S&P 500 Index opened higher this morning after lack of progress on stimulus talks contributed to broad-based losses Monday. Investors may start looking ahead to a post-election stimulus package, but would welcome something sooner. Asian shares were mixed overnight, while the broad Stoxx Europe 600 sits near flat at midday. Continue reading →

Market Update: Mon, Oct 19, 2020 | LPL Financial Research

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Daily Insights

Stocks opened higher. Reports over the weekend suggested the White House may be able strike a stimulus deal with the US House Democrats before the election, but the odds are still long, and early 2021 appears more likely. Talks will continue today. European markets are mixed in midday trading. Asian markets finished modestly higher, though generally good Chinese data over the weekend failed to lift Chinese stocks. Continue reading →

Market Update: Fri, Oct 16, 2020 | LPL Financial Research

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Daily Insights

Markets opened higher. US equities opened higher, bucking the trend from Thursday’s mixed trading. The bulls are taking the lead this morning, brushing aside the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Europe. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin cited progress on the next stimulus bill, but few expect a breakthrough soon. Asian markets ended their trading session mixed, with the Hang Seng the standout performer. European equities are firmly higher in midday trading. Continue reading →