Economic Blog
September 18, 2019
“History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.” Mark Twain
As expected, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy committee cut its policy rate by 25 basis points (.25%) to a target range of 1.75%–2%. This comes on the heels of the first rate cut in more than 10 years at the end of July. This cut is somewhat more controversial, however, because the overall U.S. economic data has been improving, and there’s been a tick higher in inflation.
Daily Insights
Fed decision today. The S&P 500 Index set to open relatively flat ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision. The Fed is expected to announce that it is cutting its policy rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) this afternoon at 2 p.m. ET. After the release of the policy statement, Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference with Q&A at 2:30 p.m. ET. Continue reading
Economic Blog
September 17, 2019
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy committee starts its sixth two-day policy meeting of the year today. At 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, following the meeting’s conclusion, the Fed will announce its rate decision and release a brief policy statement, accompanied by new economic projections. This will be followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Daily Insights
Oil in focus, but markets relatively calm. The S&P 500 Index declined 0.3% yesterday with futures pointing to modest losses at the open this morning as markets try to gauge the impact of the weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities. Continue reading
Daily Insights
Stocks set to open lower. The S&P 500 Index is modestly lower this morning following a weekend attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities that sent oil prices soaring higher. The attack occurred Saturday, knocking out 5.7 million barrels of daily production with President Trump authorizing the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help offset the cost increases caused by the attack. Continue reading
Economic Blog
September 13, 2019
Consumer inflation has accelerated recently, bucking disinflation and deflation concerns that had permeated financial markets earlier this year.
In August, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at least 0.3% for a third straight month, the first time that’s happened since April 1995. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, core CPI rose 2.4% year over year last month, one of the fastest paces of growth in this economic cycle.
Daily Insights
Testing new highs. The S&P 500 Index closed 0.5% away from a record-high close yesterday, and the index is poised to test new highs in today’s trading. Recent gains in equities have been led by cyclicals, a trend that we’ve been watching as a sign of underlying strength in market breadth. Continue reading
Economic Blog
September 12, 2019
The European Central Bank (ECB) met the market’s expectations Thursday in Mario Draghi’s swan song as the head of the central bank. The central bank cut its deposit rate by 0.1%, going further into negative territory, and restarted quantitative easing, in which it will purchase 20 billion euros in bonds monthly to help lower interest rates and inject liquidity into the financial system. The ECB also announced a tiered system to ease the pressure of negative rates on banks, exempting them from paying for the “privilege” of parking cash on some funds.
Market Blog
September 12, 2019
Tomorrow, September 13, will be the first Friday the 13th since July 2018. For most people, this is just another day, unless you suffer from triskaidekaphobia—the fear of the number 13. A fear of the actual day of Friday the 13th is called paraskevidekatriaphobia or friggatriskaidekaphobia.
Daily Insights
Inching toward record highs. U.S. stocks are poised for their sixth increase in seven trading sessions in a rally that has pushed the S&P 500 Index within 1% of record highs. This morning stocks are gaining on a delay in the start date of the next round of tariffs on China and a dovish European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision. Continue reading