The Waiting Game for Record Highs

The wait is over.

After more than seven months, the S&P 500 Index notched a fresh all-time closing high of 2,933.68 on April 23. To get here, investors have weathered back-and-forth in trade negotiations, a historic government shutdown, unrelenting Brexit headlines, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) U-turn in policy, and signs of a global slowdown.

Continue reading

Market Update: Wed, Apr 24, 2019 | LPL Financial Research

LPLResearch-Macro-View

The wait is over. Yesterday, the S&P 500 Index notched a fresh all-time closing high of 2,933.68, while the Nasdaq Composite reached its own record high of 8,120.22. It’s been a tough road back to the highs, but U.S. stocks’ persistence and momentum has been impressive. To get there, investors have weathered back-and-forth in trade negotiations, a historic government shutdown, unrelenting Brexit headlines, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) U-turn in policy, and signs of a global slowdown. Continue reading

Signs of Steepening

In March, we wrote that the Treasury yield curve was sound asleep. Since then, a quick inversion has jolted it awake.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield has climbed for four straight weeks, the longest streak since November 2016. That spread fell to near a cycle low at the end of March, the same time the three-month to 10-year yield spread inverted (long-term rates fell below short-term rates).

Continue reading

Market Update: Tues, Apr 23, 2019 | LPL Financial Research

LPLResearch-Macro-View

Hovering near new highs. U.S. stocks have stalled near record highs as investors sort through first-quarter earnings and a slowly improving global landscape. Monday was the 13th straight day the S&P 500 Index closed within 2% of an all-time high (without actually reaching a new high). Since 1995, the S&P 500 has gone as long as 18 days within this range without making a record high, so history shows U.S. stocks could break in either direction soon. We think the S&P 500’s fair value is about 3% from these levels, but the path to that fair value may not be straight. Continue reading

Digging Out of a Soft Patch

Leading data released recently have confirmed the U.S. economy could be digging out of its soft patch.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 3.1% year over year in March. Year-over-year LEI growth accelerated, breaking a five-month streak of slowing that coincided with disappointing signs in other economic data.

Continue reading

Market Update: Mon, Apr 22, 2019 | LPL Financial Research

LPLResearch-Macro-View

Daily Insights

Less than 1% from all-time highs, now what? U.S. equity markets have staged a remarkable comeback over the course of 2019, and the S&P 500 Index now sits just a few points below its record high from September 20. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, due out later today, we take a look back at the near-bear market, the V-shaped recovery, and what we think it means for the rest of the year. Continue reading

Weekly Market Drivers | LPL Financial Research

Stocks Meander Through Holiday-Shortened Week.

US: S&P 500 Index -0.1%, Dow +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.2%
Europe: STOXX Europe 600 +0.8%, German DAX +1.9% France CAC 40 +1.4%, U.K. FTSE 100 +0.5%
Asia: Japan Nikkei +1.0%, China Shanghai Composite +1.9% Korea KOSPI -0.9%
Rates/Commodities: 10-Year Treasury yield +7 basis points to 2.56%, WTI crude oil +0.8%, COMEX gold: +0.0%

Major U.S. indexes continue to hover near all-time highs, but little changed this week amid sustained weakness in healthcare stocks and as investors shrugged off indications that a U.S.-China trade deal may soon come to fruition.

Continue reading