Positive Trade, Budget Negotiations offset Mixed Economic Data
US: S&P 500 Index +2.5%, Dow +3.1%, Nasdaq +2.4%
Europe: STOXX Europe 600 +3.0%, German DAX +3.6% France CAC 40 +3.9%, U.K. FTSE 100 +1.7%
Asia: Japan Nikkei +2.8%, China Shanghai Composite +2.5%, Korea KOSPI +0.9%
Rates/Commodities: 10-Year Treasury yield -4 basis points to 2.66%, WTI crude oil +5.9%, COMEX gold: +0.8%
Positive developments on the U.S. budget and trade negotiations underpinned a solid week of gains, though mixed economic data tempered investors’ enthusiasm. Continue reading
Bullish sentiment muted despite market strength. The S&P 500 Index is making its best start to a year since 1991, and underlying technicals suggest to us that a retest of the December 24 lows is unlikely. Continue reading
Happy Valentine’s Day everyone! With the S&P 500 Index up 9.8% for the year as of yesterday, this is its best start up to this point since 1991. So should investors love to see this much green this early in the year, or should they be leery they might be heartbroken down the road?
China trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed. Though distorted by the Chinese New Year, China’s trade surplus narrowed from $29.9 billion in December to $27.3 billion in January. Overall, Chinese exports (+9.1% year over year) rose more than expected-a positive global economic signal-while imports (-1.5% year over year) fell less than expected. Continue reading
“Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.” Old Wall Street saying.
The Chinese New Year (often called the Lunar New Year) kicked off Tuesday, February 5, and with it came the Year of the Pig. Although we would never suggest investing based on the zodiac signs—it is important to note that the Year of the Pig has historically been quite strong for equities.
Likely border/budget deal, trade deadline extension push S&P 500 above key technical support level. Reports out of Washington yesterday indicated that President Trump plans to sign a border security deal that would pave the way for a budget agreement, averting a second government shutdown. Continue reading
Germany’s benchmark bund yield is on the cusp of negative territory, a symptom of increased appetite for government debt that could eventually weigh on U.S. rates. The 10-year bund yield, which closed at 0.09% (9 basis points, or bps) February 8, could go negative for the first time since late 2016 as Europe’s biggest economy battles economic weakness and falling inflation.
Yield curve remains stable, despite declines in 10-year yields. The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries, known as the yield curve, has remained stable since late December with declines in the 2-year yield approximately matching the decline in the 10-year. Continue reading
Four months ago, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index reached an 18-year high. Since then, consumer sentiment has deteriorated rapidly, leading some investors to wonder if a drop in confidence could eventually lead to a downturn.
Slower, but solid fourth quarter earnings. With two-thirds of S&P 500 Index companies having reported quarterly results so far, corporate America has delivered solid 17% earnings growth for the quarter. However, slowing global growth and trade tensions have challenged the outlook, setting up slower earnings gains in the coming year. Continue reading