The Federal Reserve (Fed) kicked off its final meeting of 2018 today. Financial markets, however, have already turned the calendar on interest-rate predictions.
Investors piling into bonds, high-yield issuers staying away. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s December survey, pessimism among investors is at its highest level in a decade, with November seeing the largest one-month rotation into bonds since the firm started its survey in 2001, though participants remained underweight fixed income in aggregate. Continue reading
LPL Research is excited to present Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets, with investment insights and market guidance for the year ahead.
LPL 2019 Outlook is Here! After nearly 10 years of witnessing the U.S. economy and stock market recover-and thrive-investors are starting to wonder if we’ve seen all this expansion and bull market have to offer. At LPL Research, we believe there’s more room to run, and don’t expect an impending recession or bear market in 2019. Continue reading
Global Growth Anxiety Overshadows Trade Progress
US: S&P 500 Index -1.3%, Dow -1.2%, Nasdaq -0.8%
Europe: STOXX Europe 600 +0.5%, German DAX +0.7% France CAC 40 +0.8%, U.K. FTSE 100 +1.5%
Asia: Japan Nikkei -1.4%, China Shanghai Composite -0.5%, Korea KOSPI -0.3%
Rates/Commodities: 10-Year Treasury yield +2 basis points to 2.89%, WTI crude oil -0.2%, COMEX gold: -0.5%
Stocks appeared headed for weekly gains after some headway was made in U.S.-China trade negotiations, but a Friday selloff erased the advances. Continue reading
We are grateful for the ongoing opportunity to exchange information and ideas with LPL advisors on social media. Here are some recent shares from November. When volatility and fundamentals were top of mind, LPL advisors helped investors stay focused on fundamentals.
Still range-bound. While markets are moving lower in early trading today, this week’s action has been relatively muted compared to the past several months. We remain encouraged by the S&P 500 Index’s ability to hold support and continue to believe that a potential triple bottom is in play, as discussed earlier this week in our Weekly Market Commentary. This retest of the lows is typically an important part of the bottoming process, and the bullish momentum divergence (as measured by Relative Strength Index 14) strengthens the case that the S&P 500 will have another shot at resistance near 2817. In order to finally break out to the upside, we will be looking for strong buying interest in equities, specifically a surge in one-month highs for individual stocks and leadership from more beaten-up, cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials.
This time of year is typically reserved for looking back, but LPL Research’s Outlook 2019 is anything but typical. Our upcoming edition will look at the important factors impacting the current bull market, such as policy, volatility, and business spending—and the insights may surprise you.
Investor confidence got a boost after President Donald Trump declared his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit December 1 “an amazing and productive meeting.” Both parties agreed to return to the negotiating table in earnest, with President Trump suspending planned increases in tariff rates from 10% to 25%, which had been slated to take effect on roughly $200 billion of Chinese imports at the start of 2019.
Trade tensions cooling. China has resumed soybean purchases for the first time since tariffs were put in place, and more corn shipments could be next according to a Bloomberg report overnight. China also indicated it would provide greater market access to foreign companies, consistent with the Trump administration’s goal to level the playing field. These developments follow reports earlier in the week that China would lower tariffs on imported autos, contributing to cooling tensions and increased optimism the two sides can find middle ground and reach a deal even as the conflict over the arrested Huawei executive escalates.