- LPL Market Signals Podcast (NEW). Listen to the latest Market Signals podcast, Going into the Fourth Quarter: Questions on Italy’s Bonds, Another Rate Hike and More, in which Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch and Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick discuss Italy’s bonds falling, the upcoming jobs report, yet another rate hike by the Fed, and other fourth quarter issues.
- LPL Research on CNBC. Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick was on CNBC Squawk Box with Joe Kernen yesterday, talking markets in October, bullish fourth-quarter seasonality, and midterms.
- USMCA lowers, but doesn’t eliminate, trade uncertainty. The U.S. and Canada reached an accord overhauling NAFTA, which President Trump has dubbed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Since all three countries have 60 days to review and finalize the agreement, any shift in the composition of leadership following the U.S. midterm elections could affect momentum for the deal. Also, the intent is for the deal to be signed by November 30, the last day in office for Mexican President Pena Nieto. Assuming that happens, the next step is a U.S. International Trade Commission review until March 15, 2019, followed by congressional approval. If the legislative outlook is altered significantly, the process would be drawn out further.
- 10-year Treasury holding above 3%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury remains above 3% since pushing through that psychologically important level following the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike last week. While headlines may be emphasizing that inflation is now above 2%, the Fed’s target level, keep in mind that the Fed remains flexible given there is little evidence to suggest a near-term ramp-up in inflation: Wage growth remains mild by historical standards, while economic growth remains strong.
- Oil touches 4-year high. WTI crude oil is holding steady this morning after reaching its highest level in four years yesterday, topping $75/barrel, as a slowdown in American drilling added to concern over potential supply losses from the upcoming U.S. sanctions against Iran set to take effect November 4, and a continued decline in Venezuelan production. Despite the recent run-up in prices, we remain neutral on the energy sector given U.S. producers’ increasing agility in responding to higher prices.
- Eurozone PPI Report (Aug)
- Nikkei Japan Services PMI (Sep)
- ADP Employment Report (Sep)
- Markit US Services PMI (Sep)
- Markit Eurozone Services PMI (Sep)
- Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM, Sep)
- Trade Balance (Aug)
- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
- Unemployment Rate (Sep)
- Japan Leading Index (Preliminary, Aug)
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.
All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.
All company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solitication of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
The investment products sold through LPL Financial are not insured deposits and are not FDIC/NCUA insured. These products are not Bank/Credit Union obligations and are not endorsed, recommended or guaranteed by any Bank/Credit Union or any government agency. The value of the investment may fluctuate, the return on the investment is not guaranteed, and loss of principal is possible.
Index data obtained via FactSet
For Public Use – Tracking #1-777242 (Exp. 10/19)