Market Update: Tuesday, October 9, 2018


Daily Insights

  • New LPL Market Signals Podcast. In the latest episode of the Market Signals Podcast, listen to Equity Strategist & Portfolio Manager Jeff Buchbinder and Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch discuss Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, as well as some of the factors pointing to continued strength in the economy. Market Signals by LPL Financial is now available on iTunes, Google Play and Spotify. Please join our discussion on social via #LPLMarketSignals.

  • 10-year Treasury yield breaches 3.25%. After returning from the Columbus Day holiday, bond traders bid up the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.254% at one point this morning, a level not seen since 2011. We expect yields to continue higher from here but hold to our view that increases will be gradual, and the 10-year will likely end 2018 near current levels. Though higher interest rates tend to weigh on stocks, on the positive side, higher yields benefit savers, who have had significant difficulty finding places to park cash. Also, stocks haven’t historically been negatively impacted by higher rates until the 10-year reaches ~5%. While we could see a ~4% threshold given the low-rate environment we’ve sustained, the drivers of higher rates are important. Economic growth remains solid and inflation remains contained, suggesting the drag on stocks may be more likely at the 4%+ level vs. ~3%. On the LPL Research blog, due out later today, we’ll examine the latest increase in rates in more detail and explain why we think longer-term yields may have hit a ceiling.

  • Small business optimism dipped but remains high. Though it ticked lower from August’s record high, at 107.9, the NFIB Small Business Index came in at its third-highest level in the survey’s 45-year history and is the longest streak of small business optimism in history, helped by the recent tax cuts and fiscal policy changes. Among the highlights, a record percentage of small business owners reported raising compensation, and data showed a pickup in investment spending and expectations for higher sales volumes.


Click Here for our detailed Weekly Economic Calendar



  • PPI Report (MoM, Sep)
  • Wholesale Inventories (Aug)
  • UK GDP (Aug)
  • Japan PPI (Sep)


  • CPI Report (Sep)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (Oct. 6)
  • China Trade Balance (Sep)
  • China Imports/Exports Data (Sep)


  • Import Price Index (MoM, Sep)
  • Export Price Index (MoM, Sep)
  • Eurozone Industrial Production (Aug)


The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1928 incorporates the performance of the predecessor index, the S&P 90.

Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

All company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solitication of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

The investment products sold through LPL Financial are not insured deposits and are not FDIC/NCUA insured.  These products are not Bank/Credit Union obligations and are not endorsed, recommended or guaranteed by any Bank/Credit Union or any government agency.  The value of the investment may fluctuate, the return on the investment is not guaranteed, and loss of principal is possible.

Index data obtained via FactSet


For Public Use – Tracking #1-779769 (Exp. 10/19)