Here at LPL Research we’ve shared many charts over the past few months regarding midterm years and midterm elections. Here are five of the best ones.
Chart 1 – Most equity gains tend to happen late in the year during a midterm year.
Chart 2 – Since 1946, the S&P 500 Index has been higher 12 months after every single midterm election. That’s 18 for 18.
Chart 3 – The S&P 500’s closing low for the month of October was October 29. Since 1950 in mid-term election years, the S&P 500 gained more than 10% on average from the October low close until the end of the year.
Chart 4 – Under a Republican president, the best scenario for stocks has been a split Congress. This is the most likely scenario after today’s elections, according to most Washington insiders.
Chart 5 – The fourth quarter of a midterm year historically have been the best quarter of the four-year presidential cycle. Not to be outdone, the next two quarters have been quite strong as well.
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