5 Midterm Charts to Know

Here at LPL Research we’ve shared many charts over the past few months regarding midterm years and midterm elections. Here are five of the best ones.

Chart 1 – Most equity gains tend to happen late in the year during a midterm year.

Gains During a Midterm Year Tended to Happen Late

Chart 2 – Since 1946, the S&P 500 Index has been higher 12 months after every single midterm election. That’s 18 for 18.

Stocks Have Done Well After Midterm Elections

Chart 3 – The S&P 500’s closing low for the month of October was October 29. Since 1950 in mid-term election years, the S&P 500 gained more than 10% on average from the October low close until the end of the year.

Chart 4 – Under a Republican president, the best scenario for stocks has been a split Congress. This is the most likely scenario after today’s elections, according to most Washington insiders.

Chart 5 – The fourth quarter of a midterm year historically have been the best quarter of the four-year presidential cycle. Not to be outdone, the next two quarters have been quite strong as well.

For more of our thoughts on midterms, please read Midterm Mayhem and this blog from earlier today. Also, check back here tomorrow, as we will have a midterm wrap-up blog.


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