Market Update: Tuesday, November 6, 2018

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Daily Insights

  • NEW LPL Market Signals Podcast. In our latest episode, listen to LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch and Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick discuss why the S&P 500 Index ‘s tumultuous October doesn’t dampen our optimism for the U.S. economy. Subscribe to the free Market Signals podcast series on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts!

  • U.S. midterms finally here, client letter out tomorrow. Many people in the U.S. are heading to the polls today to help determine the composition of Congress over the next two years. Democrats are likely to take control in the House, though analysts expect the Republications to maintain, if not strengthen, their majority in the Senate. So what could the outcome mean for U.S. stocks? If history is any guide, the results don’t matter. Investors just want clarity. With that in mind, we’ll have a new client letter available tomorrow morning to help you provide your investors with some clarity on the potential market impacts from changes in the Washington landscape.

  • Treasuries muted ahead of midterms, Fed statement. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remains in a holding pattern as investors await the outcome of U.S. midterm elections and an updated statement from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Thursday following its second-to-last monetary policy meeting this year, though either (or both) could serve as a catalyst for a move in yields. If election results align with current expectations, it could quell fears of further deficit spending. Though no rate hike is expected at this week’s Fed meeting, with Chairman Powell getting most of the credit (or blame) for the spike in volatility last month following particularly hawkish comments, investors will be monitoring the updated policy statement, particularly after last week’s jobs report showed sizeable employment gains and a meaningful pickup in wage inflation (3.1%).

  • U.S. services sector still on solid footing. Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) October non-manufacturing index came in at 60.3, better than consensus for 59.2 but weaker than September’s 61.6 level (which was the highest since 1997). Business activity and employment components were down month over month, but new orders were little changed overall. Growth in backlog and prices paid slowed. Survey participants continued to highlight concerns about tariff impacts and transport capacity shortages, but expressed stable-to-positive views on the overall business environment. Elsewhere, Markit’s October services PMI came in at 54.8, topping September’s level and consensus expectations (both 54.7).

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Click Here for our detailed Weekly Economic Calendar

Tuesday

  • JOLTS Job Openings (Sep); LP: 7136
  • Markit Germany Services PMI (Oct)
  • Markit Eurozone Services PMI (Oct)
  • Eurozone PPI Report (Sep)
  • China Foreign Reserves (Oct)

Wednesday

Thursday

  • Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 3); LP: 215K
  • Federal Reserve Rate Decision (November Meeting)
  • European Commission Updates Its Economic Forecasts (N/A)
  • China PPI (Oct)
  • China CPI (Oct)

Friday

  • PPI Report (MoM, Oct)
  • Wholesale Inventories (MoM, Sep)
  • UK GDP Report (Q3)

 

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Index data obtained via FactSet

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