- Stocks continue on path of least resistance. Devoid of clear catalysts to spur buying, investors are instead taking a more cautious view that has sustained major indexes’ recent downward momentum. Investors remained concerned about a Federal Reserve (Fed) that appears intent on continuing its rate-hike campaign despite several members acknowledging downside risks, along with an ongoing selloff in the technology sector. Lackluster earnings from several high-profile retail chains and skepticism on meaningful progress in U.S.-China trade talks are also dragging down investor sentiment.
- Disappointing October housing data. The number of building permits issued last month (1,263k) topped consensus estimates (1,260k) but was down from September’s 1,270k, while housing starts (1,228k) missed consensus expectations (1,230k) but increased from the prior month (1,210k). A pick-up in multi-unit construction starts offset a decline in single-family homes, though permits issued dropped in both sectors. Today’s reports are the latest in a string of discouraging data on the housing market, even as consumer spending and personal incomes accelerate. On Monday, data from the National Association of Home Builders showed U.S. homebuilders’ confidence dropped to the lowest level since August 2016 amid a significant slowdown in new home sales and rising interest rates.
- Corporate spreads jump. Credit markets are now sharing global stocks’ angst over trade and oil. Spreads on investment-grade and high-yield corporate debt have jumped to their highest levels since December 2016, following a spike in credit-default swap prices that we highlighted in October. On the LPL Research blog, due out later today, we highlight the recent climb in spreads, and our thoughts on if credit’s stress foreshadows a market meltdown.
- NEW LPL Market Signals Podcast. In our latest episode, listen to LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch and Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick discuss turkeys, crude oil prices, stressed credit markets, and Brexit. We will also be taking a break next week from our regular recording schedule due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Please tune in the following week when we will return to our normal recording schedule. Happy Thanksgiving! Subscribe to the free Market Signals podcast series on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts!
- Housing Starts (MoM, Oct)
- Building Permits (MoM, Oct)
- Germany PPI Report (Oct)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 17)
- Durable Goods Orders (Preliminary, MoM, Oct)
- Leading Index (MoM, Oct)
- Existing Home Sales (MoM, Oct)
- Japan CPI Report (Oct)
- Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary, Nov)
- Markit US Services PMI (Preliminary, Nov)
- Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary, Nov)
- Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary, Nov)
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