Long-term rates sprouting. Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield posted its biggest gain since the beginning of March, rising nine basis points (0.09%) amid improving global data, progress in trade negotiations and a solid March jobs report. Any positive news on the trade front or global economic conditions could take more pressure off of longer-term rates, which have been weighed down this year from high international demand.
False positive. March’s yield curve commotion now looks like the first “false positive” of this expansion. The 10-year yield fell below the 3-month yield on March 22 for the first time in nearly 12 years. Five days later, the spread flipped back into positive territory. While a prolonged yield curve inversion has preceded economic recessions historically, quick and shallow inversions are common later in economic cycles. We’ll outline the history of these false positives in today’s LPL Research blog post.
Small business optimism sustains modest rebound. After five straight monthly declines on the heels of the government shutdown, the NFIB Small Business Index rose for a second consecutive month in March. Five of the 10 index components improved, led by labor market indicators, which reinforces last week’s strong nonfarm payrolls report and suggests Main Street remains in good shape overall.
8 is great. The S&P 500 Index gained for the 8th consecutive day yesterday, for the longest winning streak since October 2017. The S&P 500 hasn’t been up 9 days in a row since late 2004, with the all-time record of 14 straight up days clear back in 1971. Turning to April, the S&P 500 has gained the first 6 days of April, tying the second longest win streak to start off this historically bullish month. The most ever was a 10 day win streak to start off April 1971. In case you missed it, yesterday on the LPL Research blog, we looked at why long win streaks could be potentially bullish events.
NEW Market Signals podcast. In this week’s podcast, strategists Ryan Detrick and Jeff Buchbinder preview the first quarter earnings season and what it indicates for the financial market and overall market outlook. Subscribe to the free Market Signals podcast series on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts!
- Japan PPI Report (Mar)
- CPI Report (Mar)
- FOMC Meeting Minutes (Mar)
- UK Industrial Production (Feb)
- European Central Bank Rate Decision (Apr)
- China CPI Report (Mar)
- China PPI Report (Mar)
- China Foreign Direct Investment (Mar)
- PPI Report (Mar)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Apr. 6)
- Germany CPI Report (Mar)
- China Exports (Mar)
- China Trade Balance (Mar)
- China Imports (Mar)
- Import Price Index (Mar)
- Export Price Index (Mar)
- University of Michigan Sentiment Index (Preliminary, Apr)
- Eurozone Industrial Production (Feb)
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