Recession Watch Update


As the economic expansion caps its first decade, we thought it’d be a good time to check on LPL Research’s leading indicators in our Recession Watch Dashboard.

As you can see in our latest update and in the LPL Chart of the Day, the overall view hasn’t changed much. We believe we are in the later stages of this economic expansion, but we still see little threat of imminent recession. The current expansion is the longest on record, at 126 months, but the economy has grown at a slow and steady rate. We believe this measured pace, along with supportive fiscal policy, has contributed to this cycle’s continued durability.
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A Closer Look At Election Years


2020 is off to a roaring start, picking up right where 2019 left off. Many investors are eyeing the upcoming presidential election as an impending storm for the stock market. In the four-year presidential cycle, pre-election years have tended to be the strongest for stocks, as sitting presidents have taken measures to boost the economy and stock market higher to garner votes. It sure worked out well last year, with the S&P 500 Index’s 31% total return. Continue reading

Market Update: Fri, Jan 17, 2020 | LPL Financial Research

Daily Insights

Charging past 3,300. Trade optimism and fourth-quarter earnings results continue to lift U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.8% on Thursday, breaking above the 3,300 level to close at another record high. Equity markets continue to make new highs with several sectors participating. Continue reading

Main Street’s Sentiment Perks Up

A milestone in the U.S.-China trade dispute has boosted corporate sentiment, according to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Beige Book.

In the Beige Book, the Fed presents qualitative observations made by community bankers and business owners—or “Main Street”—about economic (housing, labor market, manufacturing, nonresidential construction, prices, tourism, wages) and banking conditions (lending conditions, loan demand, loan quality). Continue reading

Q4 Earnings Season is All About 2020


Fourth quarter earnings season kicked off this week with 24 S&P 500 Index companies slated to report results. Our expectations are for a marginal increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) on a year-over-year basis, based on current FactSet consensus estimates (-2% year over year) and the average historical upside of roughly 3 percentage points. Continue reading

Market Update: Wed, Jan 15, 2020 | LPL Financial Research

Daily Insights

Signing day. It’s the scheduled signing day for the U.S.-China phase-one trade agreement, but details of the deal seem to be disappointing global markets. Current tariffs on Chinese imports will likely remain unchanged until later this year, and there are no details in the pact on future talks, according to reports. Continue reading

Healthy But Manageable Consumer Inflation

Consumer inflationary pressures grew at a healthy, but manageable rate in December 2019.

The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, rose 2.3% year over year last month, around the fastest pace of the economic cycle. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, core CPI growth has been steady, thanks to firm U.S. demand, despite slowing producer price and wage growth. Continue reading