December 12, 2019
The Federal Reserve (Fed) officially tied a bow on 2019 with another policy pivot.
On December 11, the Fed announced it would leave rates unchanged, concluding a string of three 25-basis point (0.25%) rate cuts from July to October.
Central bank watch. Stocks are unchanged this morning as investors digest two pivotal central bank decisions. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced it would leave rates unchanged, concluding a string of three 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cuts from July to October. Continue reading
December 11, 2019
The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.3% year over year in November, just below a cycle high of 2.4% growth last reached in September 2019.
Inflationary pressures have recovered noticeably since slowing earlier this year, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day.
A busy few days. Stocks are unchanged this morning as investors prepare for a busy few days of news. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is slated to tie a bow on its year of policy pivots with its policy announcement later today, which will be followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Continue reading
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) final policy meeting of 2019 starts today and will conclude tomorrow with the release of the Fed’s policy statement, updated economic projections, and a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. After lowering its main policy rate at each of its last three meetings, the Fed is widely expected to pause as it gauges the impact of the recent cuts and the state of the economy. Continue reading
China tariffs delayed. Stocks are unchanged this morning amid reports indicating the U.S. may delay a tariff hike on $160 billion in Chinese goods, which was initially scheduled to kick in on December 15. That’s a positive sign for the U.S.-China relationship, but it apparently isn’t enough to push stocks higher after the S&P 500 Index’s 0.3% loss. Continue reading
Trade continues to lead headlines. The S&P 500 Index is set to open modestly lower amid concerns of impending December tariffs as investors continue to watch trade developments. Overnight, a Chinese commerce official told reporters that China hopes it can reach a trade agreement with the United States that satisfies all sides “as soon as possible,” as China’s exports unexpectedly dropped 1.1% in November year over year, and Chinese shipments to the U.S. fell by 23%. Continue reading
December 6, 2019
The U.S. job market bounced back in November.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 266,000 last month, a 10-month high and well above consensus estimates for a 180,000 gain. September and October payrolls were also revised up by 41,000. Manufacturing payrolls climbed by 54,000 in November, but about 40,000 of that rise reflected workers returning from the General Motors strike.
Stocks continue to climb. Stocks are getting a nice bump this morning after a better-than-expected November jobs report, with the S&P 500 Index poised for a third straight day of gains. Investors are in wait-and-see mode as they watch a continuous string of U.S.-China trade headlines. Continue reading
December 5, 2019
It has been a banner year for global equities, thanks to the S&P 500 Index’s 24.1% gain year to date. Developed market stocks have also climbed in 2019, but they haven’t shined as brightly as their U.S. counterparts—a consistent theme over the past several years.
Underperformance by international stocks has been persistent in this bull market. As shown in the LPL Research Chart of the Day, the MSCI EAFE Index of developed market stocks has underperformed the S&P 500 in 8 of the last 10 years, including 2019 to date.The impact over the entire period: a total return of 241% for the S&P 500 versus a 72% return for the MSCI EAFE.