Light at the End of the Brexit Tunnel

Economic Blog
October 15, 2019

The debate over the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) withdrawal from the European Union (EU), or Brexit, is reaching another milepost in what could be an action-packed week.

Talks between the U.K. government and the EU have entered “tunnel” negotiation mode, in which all details of behind closed doors talks are expected to remain secret until any deal occurs. This negotiation style allows negotiators from both sides to throw around some of the more unusual proposals without fear of political repercussions.

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Market Update: Tues, Oct 15, 2019 | LPL Financial Research

Daily Insights

Earnings season kicks off. U.S. stocks are higher this morning as third quarter earnings season kicks off with a slew of big bank reports. The few reports we’ve seen so far this season have been generally in line with expectations. Overall, we expect to see little if any S&P 500 Index earnings growth for the quarter amid continued trade tensions. Continue reading

Consumer Inflation Picks Up

Economic Blog
October 10, 2019

Consumer prices grew at the fastest pace of the cycle for a second straight month in September.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.4% year over year last month. Consumer prices increased at a healthy pace, even as year-over-year growth in the core Producer Price Index (PPI) declined for an eighth straight month.

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China’s Growth Shows Signs of Stability

Economic Blog
October 09, 2019

The United States and China have faced growing economic pressure to reach a trade deal. However, the stress may be fading for one party.

As shown in LPL Research’s Chart of the Day, China’s economy is exhibiting signs of stabilizing growth, according to composite leading indicators (CLI) data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The OECD’s assessment of the Chinese economy improved for a sixth straight month in August, while the OECD’s U.S. gauge continued to slip.

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Market Update: Wed, Oct 9, 2019 | LPL Financial Research

Daily Insights

A partial trade deal. Trade is dominating headlines once again, just a day before U.S. and China officials are slated to kick off face-to-face trade discussions in Washington, D.C. U.S. stocks are higher today on news that China is willing to accept a partial trade deal with the U.S. in order to avoid more tariffs, including tariffs scheduled to take effect in October and December. Continue reading

Can The Economy Predict The Next President?

Economic Blog
October 08, 2019

“The economy, stupid” — Phrase campaign strategist James Carville used to help Bill Clinton get elected in 1992.

As Carville noted ahead of the 1992 election, the recession in 1990 and 1991 was top of mind for many voters as they headed to the polls to vote for either incumbent President George H.W. Bush or opponent Bill Clinton. And now we see investors becoming more skittish around the U.S. economic outlook just before we flip the calendar to 2020, a presidential election year. Is there any logic behind the idea that a well-performing economy tends to make voters feel better about voting for the current administration?

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