Market Blog
Did the US economy go into a recession last month? According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) the answer is no, but we think there’s a good chance that will be revised after the fact to show the economy did indeed begin a recession in March 2020. Continue reading
DAILY INSIGHTS
Strong rally extending into a second day. After rallying more than 7% to open the week Monday, the S&P 500 Index opened strongly again Tuesday on expectations that the COVID-19 pandemic is increasingly coming under control. Global stocks climbed overnight but trailed US gains. Uncertainty remains on how long social-distancing and quarantine measures will need to stay in place, and any good news is welcome after continued downward revisions to economic growth and earnings expectations. Continue reading
Market Blog
Experiencing a major pullback in stocks is never a comfortable feeling. In times like these, we believe it can be helpful to set aside the daily headlines and keep perspective of how stocks have historically performed over the long term. After all, the majority of market participants are long-term investors, not day traders as the financial media would have its viewers believe. Continue reading
DAILY INSIGHTS
Stocks surge on signs of COVID-19 stabilization. The S&P 500 Index opened more than 3% higher this morning, erasing all of last week’s losses on some early encouraging signs out of New York City that social distancing may have brought forward a potential peak in the growth rate of new cases. It’s only a day or two, and it’s only one city, but it is progress for the epicenter of the US outbreak. In Europe, more evidence emerged that the worst of their crisis may have passed, driving their markets sharply higher in midday trading. Continue reading
Markets Blog
We continue to follow our Road to Recovery Playbook for guidance in assessing the market’s bottoming process. Continue reading
Economic Blog
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly employment report this morning, showing the US jobs market posted its first month-over-month decline in March since September 2010. As seen in the chart below, total nonfarm payrolls fell by 701,000 during the March survey period, a sharp drop-off from what had been a sanguine trend. Continue reading
DAILY INSIGHTS
LPL Research on CNBC. LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick was on CNBC’s The Exchange Thursday discussing recent market volatility. You can watch the interview here. Continue reading
Market Blog
Following last week’s more than 10% gain, the S&P 500 Index is tracking toward another weekly loss, its fifth of the last seven. This has many investors wondering if a retest of the lows may be in the cards for US equities. As we explored in our How Markets Bottom post, two of the bear markets we believe show the most similarities to our current one did retest or undercut the lows after the worst of the selling. Continue reading
Economic Blog
More than 6 million people filed new claims for unemployment in the week ending March 28. It’s hard to capture what a number like that means. Last week’s 3.3 million new claims was already almost five times the previous high of 695,000, reached in 1982. Economists’ consensus for this morning’s number was 3.8 million, which still would have been about triple the largest weekly increase ever before last week. The 6.6 million new unemployment claims reported today is once again off the charts. Continue reading
DAILY INSIGHTS
Earlier gains erased after another massive surge in jobless claims. Stocks opened lower as they look to recover from a rough start to April and the second quarter. The overnight spike in oil prices was the main driver of earlier gains before market participants got a look at the devastating number of job losses announced this morning (more information below). Continue reading