Daily Insights

Seasonal uptrend. It’s beginning to look a lot like a Santa Claus rally as the S&P 500 Index pushes toward its ninth record high in three weeks. The S&P 500 hasn’t posted two consecutive declines for 27 trading days, the longest streak since January 2012. The benchmark also just broke a 24-day streak of being above–but not touching on an intraday basis–its 10-day moving average, which was its longest streak since March 1998. Stocks have crept higher in an unusually calm fashion, with the S&P 500 trading in a range smaller than 1% in 24 straight trading sessions. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Another record high. U.S. stocks are lower this morning, taking a step back after the S&P 500 Index’s seventh record high in three weeks. The benchmark eked out another record high on November 13, defying headlines suggesting the United States and China hit a snag in discussions of a limited trade agreement. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

More negative headlines. U.S. stocks are lower this morning after President Donald Trump said on November 12 that the United States would consider raising tariffs on China if a limited trade agreement isn’t reached. The statement weighed on the S&P 500 Index, which pared as much as 0.5% in intraday gains during Trump’s speech yesterday. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Two Sides of One Economy. The S&P 500 Index gained for the fifth consecutive week, making many new all-time highs in the process. Positive steps on trade have helped multiple global markets break out to new highs. Meanwhile, consumer spending has upstaged business investment. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Better than feared. With over 450 S&P 500 Index companies having reported, third quarter 2019 earnings growth is tracking to a 2.4% year-over-year decline, a 0.4% improvement over the prior week and roughly 2 percentage points above September 30 expectations (source: FactSet). Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Recession Watch Dashboard updated. We’ve updated our Recession Watch Dashboard for third quarter and posted it to the House of Charts. Based on your feedback, we’re committing to update and post the Dashboard by the third Wednesday of the month following quarter-end. Thank you for the feedback. Continue reading →

Daily Insights

Stocks rise. U.S. stocks are higher this morning on news that the United States and China have both agreed to roll back tariffs if a limited trade agreement is reached. Today’s headlines are the latest in a string of optimistic trade developments between the two nations, and all signs point to the United States and China signing a “phase one” trade deal before the end of the year. Continue reading →