Weekly Market Drivers | LPL Financial Research

Rebound continues on trade talk optimism, Fedspeak

US: S&P 500 Index +2.54%, Dow +2.43%, Nasdaq +3.45%
Europe: STOXX Europe 600 +1.69%, German DAX +1.11% France CAC 40 +0.93%, U.K. FTSE 100 +1.18%
Asia: Japan Nikkei +4.08%, China Shanghai Composite +1.55%, Korea KOSPI  3.25%
Rates/Commodities: 10-Year Treasury yield +4 basis points to 2.70%, WTI crude oil +10.18%, COMEX gold: +0.34%

Continue reading

Time to Take Off The Blindfold?

The S&P 500 Index is off to its best start in years, but this is on the heels of the worst year for stocks since 2008. The trifecta of crashing oil prices, confusion from the Federal Reserve (Fed), and trade issues with China all pushed equities lower by 14% during the usually bullish fourth quarter last year, and in the process made December the worst month of the year for the first time, according to data going back to 1950.

Continue reading

Can the Economy Handle Current Rates?

We’ve been hearing a lot of debate recently about the U.S. economy’s ability to withstand rising interest rates.

However, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, current interest rates are historically low relative to the robust output growth we’ve seen recently, proving that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path of increasing interest rates isn’t unusually cavalier given economic strength.

Continue reading

Market Update: Thurs, Jan 10, 2019 | LPL Financial Research

LPLResearch-Macro-View

Daily Insights

Resilient earnings expectations in developed international markets. In an environment where U.S. earnings have generally paced the globe, 2019 earnings estimates for the MSCI EAFE Index-mostly Europe with much of the rest in Japan-have actually held up better than those in the U.S. and emerging markets (EM) recently. Continue reading

Lower Valuations May Signal Solid Gains For Stocks

Stocks have rebounded strongly off the December lows, with the S&P 500 Index adding 2% in January to its 7% gain over the last week of 2018. We see potential for further gains ahead given the fundamentals supporting economic growth and corporate profits, along with a Federal Reserve that appears more flexible than previously feared, and improving prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal.

Continue reading

Market Update: Tues, Jan 8, 2019 | LPL Financial Research

LPLResearch-Macro-View

Daily Insights

NEW LPL Market Signals Podcast. Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch and Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick are back for a second season of the Market Signals Podcast. In this week’s episode, our strategists discuss why 2019 could see a bear market without a recession. Subscribe to the free Market Signals podcast series on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts!
Continue reading