Labor Market Continues Summer Momentum

After falling the most on record in April, the US labor market has rebounded with three consecutive months of job gains, adding back more than 9 million of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. In July, the economy added back nearly 1.8 million jobs, ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates for 1.5 million and lowering the unemployment rate from 11.1% to 10.2%, but lingering measurement issues could add 1% to that number, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Continue reading

Market Update: Fri, Aug 7, 2020 | LPL Financial Research

DAILY INSIGHTS

Markets point lower to end the week. US equities are modestly lower in early trading, following negative closes in Asia and a mixed session in Europe. Tensions with China are weighing on investors’ minds as President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning US residents from doing business with several notable Chinese social media apps. Congress continues to struggle to find common ground on the latest wave of COVID-19 stimulus, though Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he expects one “in the near future.” Continue reading

July PMI Data Shows Recovery Chugging Along

Economic Blog

We’ve written quite a bit lately about the deterioration in high-frequency data. Indicators of mobility (such as auto and air travel, commuting activity, restaurant diners, etc.) leveled off in July due to the latest wave of COVID-19 cases. The strong rebound in the job market reflected in May and June jobs data has faded, based on the increase in continuing claims reported last week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Continue reading

Market Update: Thu, Aug 6, 2020 | LPL Financial Research

DAILY INSIGHTS

Stocks set to open slightly lower. The S&P 500 Index is going for its fifth straight positive session today, while the Nasdaq will try to make it seven in a row. Today, market participants will focus on the latest jobs data and stimulus headlines out of Washington, DC, as the August congressional recess and Republicans’ August 7 deadline approaches. European markets are down more than their US counterparts in midday trading. Asian markets were flat overall. China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.3%, Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.4%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.7%. Continue reading

Are Recessions Good For Stocks?

Market Blog

This isn’t like any recession we’ve ever seen, as it was sparked by a horrible pandemic and happened because people were told to stay inside. The impact was the worst contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) last quarter that anyone who is reading this has ever seen. But what is quite surprising is the fact the Nasdaq has made 30 all-time highs so far in 2020, while the S&P 500 Index has gained four consecutive months, all while the unemployment rate remains above 10%. Continue reading

The Worst Years for Treasuries Don’t Look Like This…Except One

Economic Blog

The 10-year Treasury yield is historically low, so low that it could climb a full 1% before the end of the year and still be the lowest year-end yield on record, with room to spare. Historically low rates come with a genuine concern that they can reverse and climb higher, which could be painful for Treasury investors. The good news: As shown in LPL’s chart of the day, four out of five of the worst years for estimated 10-year Treasury returns have been mid- to late cycle, which is not the stage that we’re in now. Continue reading

Market Update: Tue, Aug 4, 2020 | LPL Financial Research

DAILY INSIGHTS

Stocks opened slightly lower. The S&P 500 Index is down slightly in early trading on a quiet day for economic data. Tuesday, market participants will focus on stimulus talks in Washington, United States and China tensions, earnings season, and COVID-19 trends. European markets are modestly lower, in-line with the United States in midday trading. Key Asian markets closed solidly higher across the board, tracking Monday’s strong US gains. Continue reading

The Clock Starts Today on This Historically Accurate Election Winner Indicator

Market Blog

2020 has been historic and devastating in many ways, from the fastest bear market ever, to one of the greatest stock market recoveries ever. Not to mention a historic drop in the economy in the second quarter, with likely a record jump due in the third quarter. With so many things happening, it is easy to forget this is also an election year. As we inch closer to the highly anticipated vote, we expect more focus to move to November 3. Continue reading