Market Blog
November 8, 2019
Investors cheering the S&P 500 Index’s fifth record high in the past two weeks may be missing a more impressive breakout in global equities.
The MSCI ACWI Index—a benchmark that captures stocks in the United States, developed international, and emerging markets—has returned 22% year to date, bringing it to within 1.5% of its first record high since January 2018.
Daily Insights
Recession Watch Dashboard updated. We’ve updated our Recession Watch Dashboard for third quarter and posted it to the House of Charts. Based on your feedback, we’re committing to update and post the Dashboard by the third Wednesday of the month following quarter-end. Thank you for the feedback. Continue reading
Economic Blog
November 7, 2019
Stalled business spending is having ripple effects on U.S. company efficiency.
Nonfarm productivity (output per worker) unexpectedly slid 0.3% in the third quarter, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report released November 6. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, that was productivity’s first quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of 2015.
Daily Insights
Stocks rise. U.S. stocks are higher this morning on news that the United States and China have both agreed to roll back tariffs if a limited trade agreement is reached. Today’s headlines are the latest in a string of optimistic trade developments between the two nations, and all signs point to the United States and China signing a “phase one” trade deal before the end of the year. Continue reading
Economic Blog
November 6, 2019
The U.S. services sector has steadily expanded this year, even as trade fears drag down manufacturing.
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing (services) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 54.7 in October, its 117th straight month in expansionary territory (above 50). As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, in recent months ISM’s manufacturing and services PMIs have diverged the most since 2015.
Daily Insights
Stocks creep higher. U.S. stocks are modestly higher on a quiet morning for headlines. In the U.S., investors are digesting mixed economic data and third-quarter earnings reports. The S&P 500 Index has closed at four record highs in the past seven trading sessions, fueled by optimistic trade headlines and encouraging Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary. Continue reading
Market Blog
November 5, 2019
“An object in motion tends to remain in motion along a straight line unless acted upon by an outside force.” Sir Isaac Newton
What a year it has been for the bulls. The S&P 500 Index recently made four more new highs, and it’s up more than 20% for the year (as of Nov. 4). This leads to the big question: What could happen in the final two months of 2019? Well, we think the bulls might like it.
Daily Insights
The S&P 500 posts another all-time high. The S&P 500 Index closed just above 3078 yesterday, putting the index up just under 25% year to date on a total return basis. A more supportive Fed, increased optimism on trade, and a better-than-feared earnings season have all been supportive of gains. Continue reading
Daily Insights
An impressive run. Optimistic U.S.-China trade headlines are lifting equities around the globe this morning. U.S. stocks are higher, adding to gains after the S&P 500 Index notched its fourth straight weekly increase. The Stoxx 600 Index of European equities is poised to close at a four-year high, while the Nikkei 225 Index of Japanese stocks is testing 12-month highs. Continue reading
Economic Blog
November 1, 2019
The U.S. labor market stood strong against headwinds in October.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 128,000 last month, higher than consensus estimates for an 85,000 gain. October’s payrolls beat expectations despite a 42,000 slide in automaker payrolls, largely from the General Motors strike. August and September’s job gains were also revised up by 95,000.